FIN415 Class Web Page, Spring '20

Jacksonville University

Instructor: Maggie Foley

The Syllabus

Term Project Part I (due with final)
Term project part II (excel questions) (due with final)

 

Weekly SCHEDULE, LINKS, FILES and Questions 

Week

Coverage, HW, Supplements

-        Required

 

Videos (optional)

Week

1

Marketwatch Stock Trading Game (Pass code: havefun)

Use the information and directions below to join the game.

1.     URL for your game: 
https://www.marketwatch.com/game/jufin415-20s    

2.     Password for this private game: havefun.

3.     Click on the 'Join Now' button to get started.

4.     If you are an existing MarketWatch member, login. If you are a new user, follow the link for a Free account - it's easy!

5.     Follow the instructions and start trading!

6.   Game will be over on 4/17/2019

 

2019 in Review: The Global Economy Explained in 5 Charts

Global growth this year recorded its weakest pace since the global financial crisis a decade ago, reflecting common influences across countries and country-specific factors.

Rising trade barriers and associated uncertainty weighed on business sentiment and activity globally. In some cases (advanced economies and China), these developments magnified cyclical and structural slowdowns already under way.

Further pressures came from country-specific weakness in large emerging market economies such as Brazil, India, Mexico, and Russia. Worsening macroeconomic stress related to tighter financial conditions (Argentina), geopolitical tensions (Iran), and social unrest (Venezuela, Libya, Yemen) rounded out the difficult picture.

image001.png

With the economic environment becoming more uncertain, firms turned cautious on long-range spending and global purchases of machinery and equipment decelerated. Household demand for durable goods also weakened, although there was a pick up in the second quarter of 2019. This was particularly evident with automobiles, where regulatory changes, new emission standards, and possibly the shift to ride-shares weighed on sales in several countries.

https://blogs.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/eng-dec-10_-res2.png

Faced with sluggish demand for durable goods, firms scaled back industrial production. Global trade—which is intensive in durable final goods and the components used to produce them—slowed to a standstill.  

https://blogs.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/eng-dec-10-res3.png

Central banks reacted aggressively to the weaker activity. Over the course of the year, several—including the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), and large emerging market central banks—cut interest rates, while the ECB also restarted asset purchases.   

https://blogs.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/eng-dec-10-res4.png

These policies averted a deeper slowdown. Lower interest rates and supportive financial conditions reinforced still-resilient purchases of nondurable goods and services, encouraging job creation. Tight labor markets and gradually rising wages, in turn, supported consumer confidence and household spending.

https://blogs.imf.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/eng-dec-10-res5.png

Will these bright spots translate into stronger global growth next year? Find out more when the IMF releases its World Economic Outlook Update on January 20.

We're not predicting recession in 2020 but odds are growing, says Vanguard global chief economist (Video)

 

For class discussion:

What is your opinion about the US economy in 2019?

What is your economic outlook of 2020? Recession?

 

 

Text Box: Quarterly Data | Economic Growth and Inflation | Q1 2017 - Q4 2019

 

GDP Growth rate

 

Q1

2017

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

 

Q1

2018

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

 

Q1

2019

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

World

3.1

3.2

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.1

G7

1.9

2.2

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.0

2.0

1.8

United States

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.9

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.5

2.3

2.2

Canada

2.3

3.8

3.1

3.0

2.3

1.9

2.1

2.2

2.4

2.1

2.1

2.0

Japan

1.5

1.6

2.0

2.0

1.0

1.3

0.9

1.1

1.5

1.2

1.4

0.5

UnitedKingdom

1.8

1.9

1.8

1.4

1.1

1.2

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

Euroarea

2.1

2.5

2.8

2.7

2.4

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

France

1.4

2.3

2.7

2.8

2.2

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.6

1.8

1.7

1.7

Germany

3.4

0.9

2.2

2.2

1.4

2.3

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.9

1.7

Italy

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.3

1.2

0.9

1.0

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.1

BRIC

5.5

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.9

6.0

5.8

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

Brazil

0.0

0.4

1.4

2.1

1.2

1.0

1.5

1.9

2.0

2.5

2.5

2.5

Russia

0.6

2.5

2.2

0.9

1.3

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.8

India

6.1

5.6

6.3

7.0

7.7

8.2

7.5

7.2

7.0

7.1

7.4

7.5

China

6.9

6.9

6.8

6.8

6.8

6.7

6.5

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.3

6.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Inflation

 

Q1

2017

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

 

Q1

2018

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

 

Q1

2019

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

World

2.9

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.8

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.7

G7

2.0

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.0

UnitedStates

2.6

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

Canada

1.9

1.3

1.4

1.8

2.1

2.3

2.7

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.1

Japan

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.6

1.3

0.6

1.1

0.9

0.7

1.2

1.0

1.8

UnitedKingdom

2.1

2.7

2.8

3.0

2.7

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.1

2.0

Euroarea

1.8

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.7

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.6

France

1.5

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.5

2.2

2.6

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.6

1.6

Germany

1.9

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.5

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

1.9

1.8

1.7

Italy

1.4

1.6

1.2

1.1

0.9

1.0

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.2

1.2

BRIC

2.3

1.9

2.0

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.0

2.9

Brazil

4.6

3.0

2.5

2.9

2.7

4.4

4.5

4.2

4.7

4.2

4.1

4.3

Russia

4.3

4.4

3.0

2.5

2.4

2.6

3.5

3.7

4.0

4.0

3.9

4.0

India

3.6

2.2

3.0

4.6

4.6

4.8

3.9

4.6

5.0

5.0

4.9

4.8

China

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.2

1.8

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.5

2.3

2.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Text Box: Quarterly Data | Exchange Rates | Q1 2018 - Q4 2019

 

UnitedStates

Keyexchangerates

 

 

Q1

2018

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

 

Q1

2019

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

Euroarea

USDperEUR

1.23

1.17

1.16

1.17

1.18

1.20

1.21

1.21

Canada

CADperUSD

1.29

1.31

1.29

1.29

1.29

1.28

1.28

1.28

Japan

JPYperUSD

106

111

114

111

110

109

108

108

UnitedKingdom

USDperGBP

1.40

1.32

1.30

1.32

1.33

1.36

1.38

1.40

Brazil

BRLperUSD

3.31

3.88

4.05

3.87

3.81

3.79

3.80

3.80

Russia

RUBperUSD

57.8

57.1

57.3

57.7

57.8

57.8

58.4

58.7

India

INRperUSD

65.1

68.5

72.5

72.6

72.0

71.9

71.7

71.5

China

CNYperUSD

6.28

6.62

6.87

6.87

6.87

6.86

6.83

6.83

 

Euroarea

Keyexchangerates

 

 

Q1

2018

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

 

Q1

2019

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

Canada

CADperEUR

1.59

1.53

1.50

1.51

1.51

1.53

1.54

1.55

Japan

JPYperEUR

131

129

132

129

129

131

131

131

UnitedKingdom

GBPperEUR

0.88

0.88

0.89

0.88

0.88

0.88

0.88

0.87

Brazil

BRLperEUR

4.06

4.53

4.70

4.52

4.48

4.55

4.60

4.60

Russia

RUBperEUR

71.0

66.7

66.6

67.3

68.0

69.2

70.7

71.1

India

INRperEUR

80.1

79.9

84.2

84.6

84.7

86.1

86.9

86.7

China

CNYperEUR

7.72

7.73

7.98

8.01

8.09

8.22

8.27

8.28

Japan

Keyexchangerates

 

 

Q1

2018

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

 

Q1

2019

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

Euroarea

JPYperEUR

131

129

132

129

129

131

131

131

Canada

JPYperCAD

82.4

84.3

88.1

85.7

85.4

85.4

84.6

84.6

UnitedKingdom

JPYperGBP

149

146

148

146

147

148

149

151

Brazil

JPYperBRL

32.2

28.5

28.1

28.6

28.8

28.7

28.4

28.4

Russia

JPYperRUB

1.84

1.94

1.98

1.92

1.90

1.89

1.85

1.84

India

JPYperINR

1.63

1.62

1.57

1.53

1.53

1.52

1.50

1.51

China

JPYperCNY

16.9

16.7

16.6

16.1

16.0

15.9

15.8

15.8

 

 

 

 

Quarterly Data |Interest Rates | Q1 2018 - Q4 2019

 

PolicyRate

in%

 

Q1

2018

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

 

Q1

2019

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

World                                             GDP-weighted average

2.69

2.75

2.83

2.89

2.88

2.95

3.00

3.04

G7                                                  GDP-weighted average

0.89

1.00

1.15

1.26

1.37

1.50

1.59

1.66

UnitedStates                               Federalfundstargetrate

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.48

2.68

2.94

3.08

3.16

Canada                                       Overnightrate

1.25

1.25

1.50

1.75

1.92

2.11

2.22

2.31

Japan                                          BoJshort-termpolicyrate

-0.10

-0.10

-0.10

-0.10

-0.10

-0.10

-0.10

-0.10

UnitedKingdom                           Bankrate

0.50

0.50

0.75

0.75

0.79

0.90

0.96

1.06

Euroarea                                     ECBrefinancingrate

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.06

0.15

BRIC                                              GDP-weighted average

5.02

5.02

5.04

5.07

5.09

5.12

5.15

5.18

Brazil                                           Selicovernightrate

6.50

6.50

6.50

6.66

6.98

7.32

7.72

8.13

Russia                                         Keyrate

7.25

6.83

6.67

6.56

6.42

6.37

6.30

6.15

India                                            Reporate

6.00

6.25

6.50

6.72

6.77

6.79

6.82

6.83

China                                          1-yeardepositrate

1.50

1.50

1.50

1.50

1.50

1.50

1.50

1.52

3-MonthBenchmarkRate

in%

 

Q1

2018

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

 

Q1

2019

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

World                                             GDP-weighted average

2.78

2.79

2.81

2.88

2.89

2.95

3.00

3.04

G7                                                  GDP-weighted average

1.11

1.13

1.17

1.30

1.44

1.54

1.63

1.69

UnitedStates                               3-monthUSDLIBOR

2.31

2.34

2.40

2.64

2.90

3.08

3.19

3.26

Canada                                       3-monthT-bill

1.09

1.25

1.51

1.85

2.00

2.20

2.28

2.39

Japan                                          3-monthJPYTIBOR

0.09

0.07

0.05

0.04

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.06

UnitedKingdom                           3-monthGBPLIBOR

0.71

0.67

0.80

0.84

0.91

1.00

1.11

1.20

Euroarea                                     3-monthEURIBOR

-0.33

-0.32

-0.32

-0.31

-0.29

-0.25

-0.15

-0.05

10-YearBondYield

in%

 

Q1

2018