FIN301 Class Web Page, Spring ' 23

Instructor: Maggie Foley

Jacksonville University

 

The Syllabus 

 

Weekly SCHEDULE, LINKS, FILES and Questions

Chapter

Coverage, HW, Supplements

-       Required

References

 

Chapter 1, 2

 

Marketwatch Stock Trading Game (Pass code: havefun)

Use the information and directions below to join the game.

1.      URL for your game: 
https://www.marketwatch.com/game/fin301-23spring

 

2.    Password for this private game: havefun

3.      Click on the 'Join Now' button to get started.

4.      If you are an existing MarketWatch member, login. If you are a new user, follow the link for a Free account - it's easy!

5.      Follow the instructions and start trading!

 

How To Win The MarketWatch Stock Market Game (youtube, FYI) finviz example

 

How Short Selling Works (Short Selling for Beginners) (youtube, FYI)

 

image001.jpg

 

 

Chapter 1: Introduction

 

ppt

 

 

 Note:

Flow of funds describes the financial assets flowing from various sectors through financial intermediaries for the purpose of buying physical or financial assets.

*** Household, non-financial business, and our government

 

Financial institutions facilitate exchanges of funds and financial products.

*** Building blocks of a financial system. Passing and transforming funds and risks during transactions.

*** Buy and sell, receive and deliver, and create and underwrite financial products.

*** The transferring of funds and risk is thus created. Capital utilization for individual and for the whole economy is thus enhanced.

 

The factors that could cause the next financial crisis are

       Pandemic

       Global warming

       War

       Inflation

       QE

       student loan

       government debt

       tax reform

       Natural disaster

       Covid

       War between Ukraine and Russia

       College tuition

       Potential war between Taiwan and China

       Supply chain issues

       Used car price

       ?

 

There's a real probability of recession in 2023, says Thornburg's Jason Brady (youtube)

 

Chapter 2 Introduction of Financial Market

 

ppt

 

1.     What are the six parts of the financial markets

Money:

       To pay for purchases and store wealth (fiat money, fiat currency)

Financial Instruments:

       To transfer resources from savers to investors and to transfer risk to those best equipped to bear it.

Financial Markets:

       Buy and sell financial instruments

       Channel funds from savers to investors, thereby promoting economic efficiency

       Affect personal wealth and behavior of business firms. Example?

Financial Institutions.

       Provide access to financial markets, collect information & provide services

       Financial Intermediary: Helps get funds from savers to investors

Central Banks

       Monitor financial Institutions and stabilize the economy

Regulatory Agencies

       To provide oversight for financial system.

 

2.     What are the five core principals of finance

  • Time has value
  • Risk requires compensation
  • Information is the basis for decisions
  • Markets determine prices and allocation resources
  • Stability improves welfare

 

Introduction to Capital Markets - ION Open Courseware (Video)

How the stock market works (video)

 

No homework for chapters 1, 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 


 

 

Chapter 5 Time value of Money

ppt

The time value of money - German Nande (video)

 

Tutoring of Time Value of Money calculation in Excel video

 

 

Chapter 5 in class exercise

 

 

Chapter 5 Homework (due with the first mid term)

 

Homework video #1 on 1/20/2023 - in class

 

Homework Video #2 on 1/27/2023 - in class

 

Homework Video #3 on 2/3/2023 - in class

 

 

1.     You deposit $5,000 in a saving account at 10% compounded annually. How much is your first year interest? How much is your second year interest? (500, 550)

 

2.     What is the future value of $5,000 invested for 3 years at 10% compounded annually? ( 6,655)

 

3.     You just bought a TV for $518.4 on credit card. You plan to pay back of $50 a month for this credit card debt. The credit card charges you 12% of interest rate on the monthly basis. So how long does it take to pay back your credit card debt? (11 months)

 

4.     You are going to deposit certain amount in the next four years. Your saving account offers 5% of annual interest rate.

First year: $800

Second year: $900

Third year: $1000

Fourth year: $1200.

How much you can withdraw four years later? (4168.35)

 

5.     You are going to deposit certain amount in the next four years. Your saving account offers 5% of annual interest rate.

First year: $800

Second year: $900

Third year: $1000

Fourth year: $1200.

How much is the lump sum value as of today (NPV)? (3429.31)

 

6.     Ten years ago, you invested $1,000. Today it is worth $2,000. What rate of interest did you earn? (7.18%)

 

7.     At 5 percent interest, how long would it take to triple your money? (22.52)

 

8.     What is the effective annual rate if a bank charges you 12 percent compounded monthly? (12.68%)

 

9.     Your father invested a lump sum 16 years ago at 8% interest for your education. Today, that account worth $50,000.00. How much did your father deposit 16 years ago? ($14594.52)

 

10.  You are borrowing $300,000 to buy a house. The terms of the mortgage call for monthly payments for 30 years at 3% interest. What is the amount of each payment?  ($1264.81)

 

11.  You deposit $200 at the beginning of each month into your saving account every month. After two years (24 deposits total), your account value is $6,000. Assuming monthly compounding, what is your monthly rate that the bank provides? (1.74%)

 

12.  You want to buy a fancy car. For this goal, you plan to save $5,500 per year, beginning immediately. You will make 4 deposits in an account that pays 8% interest. Under these assumptions, how much will you have 4 years from today? ($26,766.31)

 

13.  The Thailand Co. is considering the purchase of some new equipment. The quote consists of a quarterly payment of $4,740 for 10 years at 6.5 percent interest. What is the purchase price of the equipment? ($138,617.88)

14.  Today, you are purchasing a 15-year, 8 percent annuity at a cost of $70,000. The annuity will pay annual payments. What is the amount of each payment? ($8,178.07)

15.  Shannon wants to have $10,000 in an investment account three years from now. The account will pay 0.4 percent interest per month. If Shannon saves money every month, starting one month from now, how much will she have to save each month? ($258.81)

16.  Trevor's Tires is offering a set of 4 premium tires on sale for $450. The credit terms are 24 months at $20 per month. What is the interest rate on this offer? (6.27 percent)

17.  Top Quality Investments will pay you $2,000 a year for 25 years in exchange for $19,000 today. What interest rate are you earning on this annuity? (9.42 percent)

18.  Around Town Movers recently purchased a new truck costing $97,000. The firm financed this purchase at 8.25 percent interest with monthly payments of $2,379.45. How many years will it take the firm to pay off this debt? (4.0 years)

19.  You just received a credit offer in an email. The company is offering you $6,000 at 12.8 percent interest. The monthly payment is only $110. If you accept this offer, how long will it take you to pay off the loan? (82.17 months)

20.  What is the future value of weekly payments of $25 for six years at 10 percent? ($10,673.90)

 

 

Summary of math and excel equations

 

Math Formula

FV = PV *(1+r)^n

PV = FV / ((1+r)^n)

N = ln(FV/PV) / ln(1+r)

Rate = (FV/PV)1/n -1

Annuity:

N = ln(FV/C*r+1)/(ln(1+r))

Or

N = ln(1/(1-(PV/C)*r)))/ (ln(1+r))

 

image001.jpg

 

 

 

 

Excel Formulas 

 

To get FV, use FV function.   

      =abs(fv(rate, nper, pmt, pv))

 

To get PV, use PV function                           

     = abs(pv(rate, nper, pmt, fv))

 

To get r, use rate function                          

     = rate(nper,  pmt, pv, -fv)

 

To get number of years, use nper function       

     = nper(rate,  pmt, pv, -fv)

 

To get annuity payment, use PMT function

     = pmt(rate, nper, pv, -fv)

 

To get Effective rate (EAR), use Effect function

 = effect(nominal_rate, npery)

 

To get annual percentage rate (APR), use nominal function

 = nominal(effective rate,  npery)

 

NPV NFV calculator(FYI, might be helpful)

www.jufinance.com/nfv

 

 

 

Time Value of Money Calculator

https://www.jufinance.com/tvm/

Chapter 3 Financial Statement Analysis

 

Ppt

 

Explaining 4 Financial Statements (youtube)

 

 

************* Introduction ***************

 

Lets compare Nike with GoPro based on 10K (www.nasdaq.com)

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nke/financials

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For discussion: Which company is better?

 

 

 

Lets find it out by comparing stock performance between the two firms.

 

Nike Stock Performance (finance.yahoo.com)

 

 

 

 

What is your conclusion?

 

 

 

 ******* Part I: Balance Sheet and Income Statement **************

Home Depot (Ticker in the market: HD) reported the following information for the year ended January 30th, 2011 (expressed in millions).

Sales: $67,977

Cost of goods sold: $44,693

Marketing, general and administrative expenses: $15,885

Depreciation expenses: $1,616

Interest expense: $530

Tax rate: 36.70%

Number of shares outstanding: 1,623

Dividends paid to stockholders: $1,569.

Use the above information to try to prepare the income statement of Home Depot for the year ended January 30th, 2011 

 

Home Depot (Ticker in the market: HD) reported the following information for the year ended January 30th, 2011 (expressed in millions).

Cash: $545

Accounts receivables: $1,085

Inventories: $10625

Other current assets: $1,224

Gross fixed assets: $38,471

Accumulated depreciation: $13,411

Other fixed assets: $1,586

Accounts payable: $9,080

Short term notes payable: $1,042

Long term debt: $11,114

Total common stock: $3,894

Retained earnings: $14,995

Use the above information to try to prepare the balance sheet of Home Depot for the year ended January 30th, 2011

 

 

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gpro/financials

 

GoPro

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*

 

 

 

 

GoPro Stock performance ( finance.yahoo.com )

 

 

 

 

 

Balance Sheet Template

http://www.jufinance.com/10k/bs

 

Income Statement Template

http://www.jufinance.com/10k/is

 

 

Cash flow template

http://www.jufinance.com/10k/cf

 

 

Ratio Analysis (plus balance sheet, income statement)

https://www.jufinance.com/ratio

 

********* Part II: Cash Flow Statement ******************
Cash flow animation
 (video)

 

Here is the cash flow statement of home depot as of 2/2/2014.

 

In Millions of USD (except for per share items)

52 weeks ending 2014-02-02

Net Income/Starting Line

5,385.00

Depreciation/Depletion

1,757.00

Amortization

-

Deferred Taxes

-31

Non-Cash Items

228

Changes in Working Capital

289

Cash from Operating Activities

7,628.00

Capital Expenditures

-1,389.00

Other Investing Cash Flow Items, Total

-118

Cash from Investing Activities

-1,507.00

Financing Cash Flow Items

-37

Total Cash Dividends Paid

-2,243.00

Issuance (Retirement) of Stock, Net

-8,305.00

Issuance (Retirement) of Debt, Net

3,933.00

Cash from Financing Activities

-6,652.00

Foreign Exchange Effects

-34

Net Change in Cash

-565

Cash Interest Paid, Supplemental

639

Cash Taxes Paid, Supplemental

2,839.00

 

Discussion:

1.      What are the three components of cash flow statement?

2.      What does net change in cash mean?

 

 

image021.jpg

 

Now lets learn how to calculate cash changes in each session

Source of cash

  • Decrease in an Asset
    • Example: Selling inventories or collecting receivables provides cash
  • Increase in Liability or Equity
    • Example: Borrowing funds or selling stocks provides cash

Use of Cash

  • Increase in an Asset
    • Example: Investing in fixed assets or buying more inventories uses cash
    • Decrease in Liability or Equity
    • Example: Paying off a loan or buying back stock uses cash

 Cash Flow from Operations: Five Steps

1.      Add back depreciation.

2.      Subtract (add) any increase (decrease) in accounts receivable.

3.      Subtract (add) any increase (decrease) in inventory.

4.      Subtract (add) any increase (decrease) in other current assets.

5.      Add (subtract) any increase (decrease) in accounts payable and other accrued expenses

 

image021.jpg

 

Chapter 3 HW (due with the SECOND midterm exam)

 

Video on 2/17/2023 (Friday) in class

Video on 2/24/2023 (Friday) in class

 

 

1.     Firm AAA just showed how it operated in the prior year.

Sales = $2,000; Cost of Goods Sold = $1,000; Depreciation Expense = $200; Administrative Expenses = $180; Interest Expense = $30; Marketing Expenses = $50; and Taxes = $200. Prepare income statement

2.     A firm has $2000 in current assets, $3000 in fixed assets, $300 in accounts receivables, $300 accounts payable, and $800 in cash. What is the amount of the inventory? (hint: 900)

3.     A firm has net working capital of $1000. Long-term debt is $5000, total assets are $8000, and fixed assets are $5000. What is the amount of the total equity? (Hint: to find total equity, you need to calculate total debt, which is a sum of long term debt and short term debt. Short term can be found from new working capital.) (hint: 1000)

4.     Andre's Bakery has sales of $100,000 with costs of $50,000. Interest expense is $20,000 and depreciation is $10,000. The tax rate is 35 percent. What is the amount of tax paid? (hint: 7000)(hint: tax = taxable income * tax rate and taxable income = EBT)

5.     Andre's Bakery has sales of $100,000 with costs of $50,000. Interest expense is $20,000 and depreciation is $10,000. The tax rate is 35 percent. The company also paid $3,000 for dividend. What is the retained earning?  (hint: retained earning = net income - dividend)(hint: 10,000)

6.     The Blue Bonnet's 2018 balance sheet showed net fixed assets of $2.2 million, and the 2019 balance sheet showed net fixed assets of $2.6 million. The company's income statement showed a depreciation expense of $1,000,000. What was the amount of the net capital spending for 2019? $1,400,000

7.     A firm has $500 in inventory, $1,860 in fixed assets, $190 in accounts receivables, $210 in accounts payable, and $70 in cash. What is the amount of the current assets?  (760)

8.     A firm has net working capital of $640. Total liability is $5,860. Total assets are $6,230, and fixed assets are $3,910. What is the amount of long term debt?  (4180)

9.     Which one of the following is a use of cash? (answer: B)
A. decrease in accounts receivable
B. decrease in accounts payable
C. increase in common stock
D. decrease in inventory

10. A firm generated net income of $878. The depreciation expense was $40 and dividends were paid in the amount of $25. Accounts payables decreased by $13, accounts receivables increased by $20, inventory decreased by $14, and net fixed assets decreased by $8. There was no interest expense. What was the net cash flow from operating activity? (899)

11. Teddys Pillows has beginning net fixed assets of $480 and ending net fixed assets of $530. Assets valued at $300 were sold during the year. Depreciation was $40. What is the amount of capital spending? (90)

12. Arts Boutique has sales of $640,000 and costs of $480,000. Interest expense is $40,000 and depreciation is $60,000. The tax rate is 34%. What is the net income? (39,600)

 

 

 

 

image023.jpg

 

image024.jpg

 

 

 

 

Cash Flow Statement Answer

calculation for changes

Cash at the beginning of the year

2060

Cash from operation

net income

3843

plus depreciation

1760

-/+ AR

-807

807

-/+ Inventory

-3132

3132

+/- AP

1134

1134

net change in cash from operation

2798

Cash from investment

-/+ (NFA+depreciation)

-1680

1680

net change in cash from investment

-1680

Cash from finaning

+/- long term debt

1700

1700

+/- common stock

2500

2500

- dividend

-6375

6375

net change in cash from investment

-2175

Total net change of cash

-1057

Cash at the end of the year

1003

 

(The excel file of the above cash flow statement is here)

 

More exercises of chapter 3 (word file here) (solution)

 

 

In class exercise

1.     Refer to the above table. Inventory has increased from $18,776 to $21,908. This is  ____________ of cash;

 Long term debt has increased from $9,800 to $11,500. This is ____________ of cash. 
A. use; use
B. use; source
C. source; source
D. source; use

 

 

2.     Prepare cash flow statement based on information given

 

Increase in accounts receivable $20

Decrease in inventory 10

Operating income 120

Interest expense 20

Decrease in accounts payable 20

Dividend 10

Increase in common stock 30

Increase in net fixed asset 10

Depreciation 5

Income tax 10

Beginning cash 100

 

Why is Investment Cash flow -$15?

Assume that Net fixed assets =$10 in previous year.

Depreciation = $5 Net fixed assets will drop by $5 due to depreciation, so net fixed assets should be $10-$5=$5, if the company has done nothing on fixed assets.

 

However, increase in Net Fixed Asset = $10 net fixed assets = $10 + $10 = $20 this year.

 

How much has been spent on fixed assets?

$20-$5=$15 It is a cash outflow, so -$15.

Solution: see above

Note: NI = EBIT Interest Tax = 120-20-10=90

 

Chapter 4: Ratio Analysis

 

Ppt

 

3 Minutes! Financial Ratios & Financial Ratio Analysis Explained & Financial Statement Analysis

 

 

Ratio analysis template ( https://www.jufinance.com/ratio)

 

 

Stock screening tools

FINVIZ.com

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx

 

We will focus on the following several ratios:

 

P/E (price per share/earning per share, P/E < 15, a bargain)

PEG (PE ratio / growth rate. PEG<1, undervalued stock) (optional)

EPS (earning per share)

ROA (Return on Asset = NI/TA, ROA>10% should be a nice benchmark)

ROE (return on equity = NI/TE, ROE>15% should be good)

Current ratio (liquidity measure. = CA/CL, has to be greater than one)

Quick ratio (liquidity measure. = (CA-Inventory)/CL, has to be greater than one)

Debt Ratio (Leverage measure. = TD/TA, need to be optimal, usually between 30% and 40%)

Gross margin (profit measure. = EBITDA/sales, or = Gross margin/sales, has to be positive)

Operating margin (profit measure. = EBIT/sales, or = operating income/sales, has to be positive)

Net profit margin (profit measure. = NI/sales, has to be positive)

Payout ratio (= dividend / NI, measures distribution to shareholders. No preferences. Usually value stocks have high payout ratio; Growth stocks have low payout ratio).

Total assets turnover = Sales/TA

Inventory turnover ratio = Sales/Inventory

Fixed assets turnover ratio = Cost of goods sold / Fixed assets

 

 

Nike --- Valuation

 

Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM) 35.96

Price to Sales Ratio 4.09

Price to Book Ratio 12.22

EPS (recurring) 3.74

EPS (basic) 3.83

 

Efficiency

Current Ratio 2.63

Quick Ratio 1.84

Cash Ratio 1.21

 

Profitability

Gross Margin +46.13

Operating Margin +14.49

Return on Assets 15.49

Return on Equity 43.11

 

Capital Structure

Total Debt to Total Assets 31.32

Long-Term Debt to Assets 0.29

 

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/NKE/financials

 

 

 

In class exercise

image023.jpg

image024.jpg

 

How much is ROA in 2009? ROA in 2009? Quick Ratio? Current Ratio? Debt Ratio? Payout Ratio? Operating margin? Net profit margin?

If the companys stock is traded at $40 per share and there are 2,000 shares outstand. How much is PE?

 

Homework of chapter 4 ( due with the SECOND midterm exam)

 

1.     1 .A firm has total equity of $2000 and a debt-equity ratio of 2. What is the value of the total assets? 

2, The Co. has sales = $50 million, total assets = $30 million, and total debt = $15 million. The profit margin = 20%. What is the return on equity (ROE)? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GoPro ---

 

Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM) 12.92

Price to Sales Ratio 1.45

Price to Book Ratio 2.62

Price to Cash Flow Ratio 7.34

Total Debt to EBITDA 1.79

EPS (recurring) 2.28

EPS (basic) 2.41

 

Efficiency

Total Asset Turnover 1.13

 

Liquidity

Current Ratio 1.65

Quick Ratio 1.46

Cash Ratio 1.13

 

Profitability

Gross Margin +41.20

Operating Margin +9.96

Net Margin +31.97

Return on Assets 36.28

Return on Equity 89.23

Return on Total Capital 16.54

Capital Structure

Total Debt to Total Assets 22.63

Long-Term Debt to Assets 0.12

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/GPRO/financials

 

www.marketwatch.com

 

First Mid Term Exam 2/22/2023 (chapters 5, 3, 4)

 

First Mid Term Exam Study Guide

Multiple Choice Questions (25*4 = 100. There are 26 questions in total, with one question being optional and not counted towards your grade.)
 

  1. The three components of the cash flow statements. 
  2. The basic concepts of the balance sheet and income statement
  3. Concept of new working capital
  4. Given equity, NWC, long term debt, total debt, current debt? Total debt? NFA? Current asset?
  5. Given sales, COG, other costs, depreciation, tax rate, dividend. RE? NI?
  6. Choose between source and use by given changes in AR, CL, inventory, debt, dividend.  
  7. Time value of money question:
  • given pmt, rate, nper, calculate pv, fv
  • how long to triple investment, given pmt, rate .
  • given apr, calculate EAR
  • given pv, rate, nper, calculate pmt
  • given CF0, CF1-CF3, rate, calculate npv, nfv

 

 

 

Chapter 6 Risk and Return

ppt

 

Risk and Return in class exercise

 

Excel file here will be provided soon

 

Steps: In class exercise

 

1.    Pick three stocks. Has to be the leading firm in three different industries.

We chose Tesla, Amazon, and Walmart.

 

       Stock Prices Raw Data, Risk, Beta, CAPM (Duke energy, Disney, McDonald, S&P500 (Raw data), will be updated based on the new stocks chosen in class (template))

 

 

2.      From finance.yahoo.com, collect stock prices of the above firms, in the past five years 

Steps:

       Goto finance.yahoo.com, search for the company

       Click on Historical prices in the left column on the top and choose monthly stock prices.

       Change the starting date and ending date to 2/1/2018 and 2/1/2023, respectively.

       Download it to Excel

       Delete all inputs, except adj close this is the closing price adjusted for dividend.

       Merge the three sets of data just downloaded

 

3.      Evaluate the performance of each stock:

       Calculate the monthly stock returns.

       Calculate the average return

       Calculate standard deviation as a proxy for risk

       Calculate correlation among the three stocks.

       Calculate beta. But you need to download S&P500 index values in the past five years from finance.yahoo.com.

       Calculate stock returns based on CAPM.

       Draw SML

image008.jpg

       Conclusion and take away?

 

 

Topic 1 - Effect of Diversification

 

image010.jpg

 

Conclusion: More than 25 stocks should do the trick for diversification.

 

Please refer to template

 

 

Topic 2 - What Is the Capital Asset Pricing Model?

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) describes the relationship between systematic risk and expected return for assets, particularly stocks. CAPM is widely used throughout finance for pricing risky securities and generating expected returns for assets given the risk of those assets and cost of capital.

 Ri = Rf + βi * (Rm - Rf) ------ CAPM model

Ri = Expected return of investment

Rf = Risk-free rate

βi = Beta of the investment

Rm = Expected return of market

(Rm - Rf) = Market risk premium

 

 CAPM calculator

 

Topic 3 Normal Distribution Predict Stock Returns (FYI only)

 Stock Price Normal Distribution (FYI)  ( https://homepage.divms.uiowa.edu/~mbognar/applets/normal.html)

For example: from our in class exercise

 

McDonald

DISNEY

Duke Energy

Mean

1.23%

0.52%

0.86%

standard deviation

5.52%

9.99%

5.43%

 

Excel command to get the probability to earn less than 0% for MCD:

=NORM.DIST(0%, 1.23%, 5.52%, 1)

Excel command to get the probability to earn less than 0% for DIS:

=NORM.DIST(0%, 0.52%, 9.99%, 1)

Excel command to get the probability to earn less than 0% for DUKE:

=NORM.DIST(0%, 0.86%, 5.43%, 1)

 

HW of chapter 6  (Due with the second mid Term exam)

Chapter 6 Homework

 

Homework help video 1(Questions 1-4) 3/3/2023 in class

Homework help video 2 (the remaining homework) 3/10/2023 in class

 

1) Stock A has the following returns for various states of the economy:

 State of

the Economy         Probability       Stock A's Return

Recession              10%                 -30%

Below Average     20%                 -2%

Average                 40%                 10%

Above Average     20%                 18%

Boom                    10%                 40%

Stock A's expected return is? (ANSWER: 8.2%)

 

2) Joe purchased 800 shares of Robotics Stock at $3 per share on 1/1/19. Bill sold the shares on 12/31/19 for $3.45. Robotics stock has a beta of 1.9, the risk-free rate of return is 4%, and the market risk premium is 9%. Joe's holding period return is? (ANSWER: 15%)

 

3. You own a portfolio with the following expected returns given the various states of the economy. What is the overall portfolio expected return? (ANSWER: 9.05%)

State of economy            probability of state of economy                rate of return if state occurs

Boom                                    27%                                                                        14%

Normal                                 70%                                                                        8%

Recession                            3%                                                                          -11%

 

4) The prices for the Electric Circuit Corporation for the first quarter of 2019 are given below. The price of the stock on January 1, 2019 was $130. Find the holding period return for an investor who purchased the stock onJanuary 1, 2009 and sold it the last day of March 2019. (ANSWER: 2.12%)

      Month End   Price

      January     $125.00

      February     138.50

      March         132.75

 

5) Collectibles Corp. has a beta of 2.5 and a standard deviation of returns of 20%. The return on the market portfolio is 15% and the risk free rate is 4%. What is the risk premium on the market? (ANSWER: 11%)

  

6) An investor currently holds the following portfolio:

                                       Amount

                                      Invested

8,000 shares of Stock    A $16,000    Beta = 1.3

15,000 shares of Stock  B $48,000    Beta = 1.8

25,000 shares of Stock  C $96,000    Beta = 2.2

 The beta for the portfolio is? (ANSWER: 1.99)

  

7) Assume that you have $165,000 invested in a stock that is returning 11.50%, $85,000 invested in a stock that is returning 22.75%, and $235,000 invested in a stock that is returning 10.25%. What is the expected return of your portfolio? (ANSWER: 13%)

  

8) If you hold a portfolio made up of the following stocks:

            Investment Value Beta

Stock A      $8,000           1.5

Stock B      $10,000          1.0

Stock C       $2,000             .5

 What is the beta of the portfolio? (ANSWER: 1.15)

 

9. The risk-free rate of return is 3.9 percent and the market risk premium (rm rf) is 6.2 percent. What is the expected rate of return on a stock with a beta of 1.21? (ANSWER: 11.4%)
  

10.              You own a portfolio consisting of the stocks below.

Stock                     Percentage of portfolio                 Beta

1.                                  20%                                                         1

2.                                  30%                                                         0.5

3.                                 50%                                                          1.6

The risk free rate is 3% and market return is 10%.

a.                   Calculate the portfolio beta. (ANSWER: 1.15)

b.                  Calculate the expected return of your portfolio. (ANSWER: 11.05%)

  

11.  Computing holding period return for Jazman and Solomon for period 1 through 3 (bought in period 1 and sold in period 3). Show the holding period returns for each company. (ANSWER: 50%, -25%)

Period             Jazman           Solomon

1                      $10                  $20

2                      $12                  $25

3                      $15                  $15

  

12.  Calculate expected return (ANSWER: 12%)

State of the economy

Probability of the states

% Return (Cash Flow/Inv. Cost)

Economic Recession

30%

5% 

Strong and moderate Economic Growth

70%

15% 

 

 13.  Calculate the expected returns of the following cases, respectively

1)      Invest $10,000 in Treasury bill with guaranteed return of 4%. (ANSWER: 4%)

2)      Investment $10,000 in Apple. 50% possibility to earn 20% return and 50% possibility to lose 10% of investment.(ANSWER: 5%)

3)      Investment $10,000 in Wal-Mart. 50% possibility to earn 5% return and 50% possibility to earn 0% of investment.(ANSWER: 2.5%)

 

14.  Rank the risk of the following cases, from the least risky one the most risky one (ANSWER: 1, 3, 2)

1)      Invest $10,000 in Treasury bill with guaranteed return of 4%.

2)      Investment $10,000 in Apple. 50% possibility to earn 20% return and 50% possibility to lose 10% of investment.

3)      Investment $10,000 in Wal-Mart. 50% possibility to earn 5% return and 50% possibility to earn 0% of investment.

 

15.  An investor currently holds the following portfolio:

                                       Amount

                                      Invested

8,000 shares of Stock    A $10,000    Beta = 1.5

15,000 shares of Stock  B $20,000    Beta = 0.8

25,000 shares of Stock  C $20,000    Beta = 1.2

Calculate the beta for the portfolio.(ANSWER: 1.1)

 

Excel Command:

sumproduct(array1, array2) ---- to get expected returns

stdev(observation1, obv2, obv3,.) ---- to get standard deviation

correl(stock 1s return, stock 2s return) --- to get correlation between stocks

beta = slope(stock return, sp500 return) --- to get the stocks beta

 

 

 

 

 

Expected return calculator

www.jufinance.com/return

 

 

Holding Period Return Calculator

www.jufinance.com/hpr

 

 

CAPM Model Calculator

www.jufinance.com/capm

 

Two Stock Portfolio Return and Standard Deviation

www.jufinance.com/portfolio

 

 

 

FYI only

image026.jpg

W1 and W2 are the percentage of each stock in the portfolio.

image028.jpg

 

image031.gif

  • r12 = the correlation coefficient between the returns on stocks 1 and 2,
  • s12 = the covariance between the returns on stocks 1 and 2,
  • s1 = the standard deviation on stock 1, and
  • s2 = the standard deviation on stock 2.

 

image076.jpg

image022.jpg

  • s12 = the covariance between the returns on stocks 1 and 2,
  • N = the number of states,
  • pi = the probability of state i,
  • R1i = the return on stock 1 in state i,
  • E[R1] = the expected return on stock 1,
  • R2i = the return on stock 2 in state i, and
  • E[R2] = the expected return on stock 2.

 

 

2022 High Beta Stocks List | The 100 Highest Beta S&P 500 Stocks (FYI)

Updated on September 15th, 2022 by Bob Ciura

https://www.suredividend.com/high-beta-stocks/

 

 

#5: Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT)

 

Fortinet, Inc. provides broad, integrated, and automated cybersecurity solutions around the world. It offers FortiGate hardware and software licenses that provide various security and networking functions. Fortinet is a large-cap stock with a market cap above $40 billion.

 

In the 2022 second quarter, Fortinet generated revenue of $1.03 billion, up 29% from the same quarter last year. Product and service revenue grew 34% and 25%, respectively. Adjusted earnings-per-share increased 26% year-over-year.

 

For 2022, Fortinet expects revenue of $4.25 billion to $4.40 billion, consisting of $2.62 billion to $2.67 billion in service revenue. Billings are expected between $5.56 billion and $5.64 billion. Adjusted earnings-per-share are expected in a range of $1.01 to $1.06 for the full year.

 

FTNT has a Beta value of 1.71.

 

#4: Paycom Software Inc. (PAYC)

 

Paycom is a technology stock that produces cloud-based human capital management (HCM) as-a-service software. Services help employers manage a variety of HCM tasks such as talent acquisition, and time and labor management.

 

In the most recent quarter, Paycom generated $317 million in revenue, up 31% year-over-year. Recurring revenue grew 31%, and represented 98% of total revenue. Earnings-per-share of $1.26 increased 30% compared with $0.97 in the year-ago quarter.

 

PAYC has a Beta value of 1.71.

 

#3: ServiceNow (NOW)

 

ServiceNow is a high-quality technology company, which transforms old, manual ways of working into modern digital workflows. It reduces the complexity of jobs and makes work more pleasant to employees, thus resulting in increased productivity.

 

ServiceNow currently has more than 7,400 enterprise customers, which include about 80% of the Fortune 500. All these customers use the Now Platform, which is an intelligent cloud platform that carries out their digital transformation.

 

ServiceNow is a leader in the digital transformation of companies towards making work better for their employees. According to a research of IDC, more than $3 trillion has been invested in digital transformation initiatives but only 26% of the investments have delivered acceptable returns.

 

NOW has a Beta value of 1.77.

 

#2: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

 

Advanced Micro Devices was founded in 1959 and in the decades since it has become a sizable player in the chip market. AMD is heavy in gaming chips, competing with others like NVIDIA for the lucrative, but competitive market.

 

In the 2022 second quarter, AMD reported revenue of $6.6 billion. This was a 70% year-over-year increase, driven by organic growth as well as the contribution from Xilinx. Gross margin contracted two percentage points to 46% for the quarter. Operating income rose 22% to $526 million. Adjusted earnings-per-share of $1.05 increased 67%.

 

AMD has a Beta value of 2.09.

 

#1: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

 

NVIDIA Corporation is a specialized semiconductor company that designs and manufactures graphics processors, chipsets and related software products.

 

Its products include processors that are specialized for gaming, design, artificial intelligence, data science and big data research, as well as chips designed for autonomous vehicles and robots.

 

Over the last five years, NVIDIAs growth exploded. This growth was partially driven by cryptocurrency mining, although that has mostly ceased to be a tailwind, and future growth will be centered on other growth drivers. NVIDIAs GPUs are very versatile in AI applications, which was an unintended benefit of the companys research and development efforts.

 

The company has immediately started to capitalize on this trend by offering GPUs that are optimized for deep learning and other specialized applications. These GPUs act as the brains of computers, robots, and self-driving cars. Those GPUs are, among others, utilized in professional visualization and data centers. The markets NVIDIA supplies GPUs for have strong growth tailwinds, which bodes well for NVIDIAs long-term revenue outlook.

 

NVDA has a Beta value of 2.31.

 

 

 

Negative Beta Stocks | The 1 Negative Beta S&P 500 Stock In 2022 (FYI)

Updated on January 19th, 2022 by Bob Ciura

https://www.suredividend.com/negative-beta-stocks/

 

 

Negative Beta Stock: Clorox Company (CLX)

With over 40 years of dividend increases, Clorox is on the exclusive Dividend Aristocrats list.

 

Clorox is a manufacturer and marketer of consumer and professional products, spanning a wide array of categories from charcoal to cleaning supplies to salad dressing.

 

More than 80% of its revenue comes from products that are #1 or #2 in their categories across the globe, helping Clorox produce more than $7 billion in annual revenue.

 

Clorox reported first quarter earnings on November 1st, 2021, and results were better than expected, although expectations were low.

 

Total revenue declined nearly 6% yearoveryear to $1.8 billion, as organic sales fell 5% during the quarter. The decline was due to unfavorable pricing and mix, a decline in volume, and forex translation.

 

Cleaning and professional products were higher, but consumer products like vitamins and supplements posted strong declines.

 

Clorox stock has a Beta value of -0.24.

 

image106.png

https://ycharts.com/companies/CLX/performance/price

 

 

Chapter 7 Bond pricing

 

Ppt

 

 

Yield Curve http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/Default.jsp 3/19/2023

 

Understanding the yield curve (youtube)

 

 

Balance Sheet of WalMart https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/wmt/financials

 

For discussion:

         What is this long term debt?

         Who is the lender of this long term debt?

So this long term debt is called bond in the financial market. Where can you find the pricing information and other specifications of the bond issued by WMT?

 

 

Investing Basics: Bonds(video)

 

 

FINRA Bond market information

http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/Default.jsp

 

 

 

Chapter 7 Study guide  

1.      Go to http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/Default.jsp  , the bond market data website of FINRA to find bond information. For example, find bond sponsored by Wal-mart

Or, just go to www.finra.org Investor center  market data  bond  corporate bond

 

Corporate Bond

Understand what is coupon, coupon rate, yield, yield to maturity, market price, par value, maturity, annual bond, semi-annual bond, current yield. https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/

 

 

2.      

 

 

Refer to the following bond at http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C104227&symbol=WMT.GP

 

 

 

 

3.      3. Understand how to price bond

Bond price = abs(pv(yield, maturity, coupon, 1000)) ------- annual coupon

Bond price = abs(pv(yield/2, maturity*2, coupon/2, 1000)) ------- semi-annual coupon

 

Also change the yield and observe the price changes. Summarize the price change pattern and draw a graph to demonstrate your findings.

 

Again, when yield to maturity of this semi_annual coupon bond is 3%, how should this WMT bond sell for?

 

4.      Understand how to calculate bond returns

Yield to maturity = rate(maturity, coupon,  -market price, 1000) annual coupon

Yield to maturity = rate(maturity*2, coupon/2,  -market price, 1000)*2 semi-annual coupon

 

For example, when the annual coupon bond is selling for $1,200, what is its return to investors?

 

For example, when the semi-annual coupon bond is selling for $1,200, what is its return to investors?

 

5.      Current yield: For the above bond, calculate current yield.

6.      Zero coupon bond: coupon=0 and treat it as semi-annual coupon bond.

Example: A ten year zero coupon bond is selling for $400. How much is its yield to maturity?

A ten year zero coupon bonds yield to maturity is 10%. How much is its price?

 

7.      Understand what is bond rating and how to read those ratings. (based on z score. What is z score?)

a.       Who are Moody, S&P and Fitch?

b.      What is IBMs rating?

c.       Is the rating for IBM the highest?

d.      Who earned the highest rating?

 

8. Understand the cash flows from a bond as a bond investor

For example, a five year, annual coupon bond, with 5% coupon rate. Its cash flows are as follows.

 

 

 

Chapter 7 Home Work (due with the second mid-term)

 

Homework video 3/24/2023 (in class)

 

1.                  IBM 5 year 2% annual coupon bond is selling for $950. How much this IBM bonds YTM?  3.09%

2.                  IBM 10 year 4% semi_annual coupon bond is selling for $950. How much is this IBM bonds YTM? 4.63%

3.                  IBM 10 year 5% annual coupon bond offers 8% of return. How much is the price of this bond?   798.7

4.                  IBM 5 year 5% semi-annual coupon bond offers 8% of return. How much is the price of this bond? $878.34

5.                  IBM 20 year zero coupon bond offers 8% return. How much is the price of this bond? 208.29

6.                  Collingwood Homes has a bond issue outstanding that pays an 8.5 percent coupon and matures in 18.5 years. The bonds have a par value of $1,000 and a market price of $964.20. Interest is paid semiannually. What is the yield to maturity? 8.9%

7.                  Grand Adventure Properties offers a 9.5 percent coupon bond with annual payments. The yield to maturity is 11.2 percent and the maturity date is 11 years from today. What is the market price of this bond if the face value is $1,000? 895

8.                  The zero coupon bonds of D&L Movers have a market price of $319.24, a face value of $1,000, and a yield to maturity of 9.17 percent. How many years is it until these bonds mature?  12.73 years

9.                  A zero coupon bond with a face value of $1,000 is issued with an initial price of $212.56. The bond matures in 25 years. What is the yield to maturity? 6.29%

 10. The bonds issued by Stainless Tubs bear a 6 percent coupon, payable semiannually. The bonds mature in 11 years and have a $1,000 face value. Currently, the bonds sell for $989. What is the yield to maturity?  6.14%

Summary of bond pricing EXCEL functions

 

To calculate bond price (annual coupon bond):

Price=abs(pv(yield to maturity, years left to maturity, coupon rate*1000, 1000)

 

To calculate yield to maturity (annual coupon bond)::

Yield to maturity = rate(years left to maturity, coupon rate *1000, -price, 1000)

 

To calculate bond price (semi-annual coupon bond):

Price=abs(pv(yield to maturity/2, years left to maturity*2, coupon rate*1000/2, 1000)

 

To calculate yield to maturity (semi-annual coupon bond):

Yield to maturity = rate(years left to maturity*2, coupon rate *1000/2, -price, 1000)*2

 

To calculate number of years left(annual coupon bond)

Number of years =nper(yield to maturity,  coupon rate*1000, -price, 1000)

 

To calculate number of years left(semi-annual coupon bond)

Number of years =nper(yield to maturity/2,  coupon rate*1000/2, -price, 1000)/2

 

To calculate coupon (annual coupon bond)

Coupon = pmt(yield to maturity, number of years left, -price, 1000)

Coupon rate = coupon / 1000

 

To calculate coupon (semi-annual coupon bond)

Coupon = pmt(yield to maturity/2, number of years left*2, -price, 1000)*2

Coupon rate = coupon / 1000

 

 

Math Formula (FYI)

 

image025.jpg

 

C: Coupon, M: Par, $1,000; i: Yield to maturity; n: years left to maturity

 

 image026.jpg

 

For Semi-annual, F=2 for semi-annual coupon

 

 image027.jpg

 

M: Par, $1,000;  i: Yield to maturity; n: years left to maturity

 

 

 

 

 

Bond calculator  (Thanks to Dr. Lane)

www.jufinance.com/bond

 

 

 

March 15, 20233:00 AM EDT

Column: Deeply inverted US curve flashed bank danger for months (FYI)

By Jamie McGeever

It's a lesson many investors seem reluctant to learn as there's always a tendency to assume it's different this time.

 

But whether it's stress in the banks, financial markets or the wider economy, an inversion of long-term bond yields below short-term funding rates is almost always a signal that a credit-driven economy faces trouble ahead. And that's mainly because it causes the problem.

 

The volatility crashing through the U.S. banking sector, which triggered late night intervention from U.S. regulators on Sunday to curb a contagious flight of deposits from smaller, weaker banks to larger ones, is just the latest example.

 

The implosion of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) SIVB.O - America's 16th largest bank - prompted the Treasury and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) on Sunday to say that all customers will be able to access their funds, while the Fed unveiled a new program offering institutions cheap and easy access to loans.

 

These steps were taken after SVB was shut down, forced to realize losses on its holdings of longer-dated Treasuries at the same time its deposit base was under threat. The aim was to ward off contagion spreading through the $23 trillion banking sector.

 

Ultimately, though, liquidity does not guarantee profitability. If longer-term profitability is authorities' goal, they may have to engineer a lasting re-steepening of the yield curve back into positive territory

 

Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid says inverted curves are almost always an ominous sign - they signal an eventual unwind of carry trades somewhere in the financial system or economy, meaning investors and economic agents are about to draw in their horns.

 

"I don't care why the curve inverts, I just care that it does," he said on Monday.

 

While SVB's failure may not be a direct casualty of the inverted yield curve, an inverted curve is a sign that wider financial conditions are not so easy, presenting banks with a far more challenging economic and financial environment.

 

There are several measurements of the gap between short- and longer-dated yields but the '2-year/10-year' is the benchmark - it goes back decades, captures highly liquid parts of both ends of the curve, and its inversion has preceded every recession of the past 45 years.

 

The two-year Treasury yield has been higher than the 10-year yield since last July as the Fed has embarked on its most aggressive rate-raising campaign in decades. The gap reached 110 basis points (bps) last week, the deepest inversion since 1981.

 

In that light, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg may have welcomed the 2s/10s curve steepening by 40 bps on Monday, the most in decades - only another 50 bps to go and the curve will be sloping up for the first time since last summer.

 

Banks make money when the yield curve slopes positively, borrowing cheaply via customer deposits, central bank windows or the short end of the curve, and lending longer term at higher rates - a classic 'carry trade'.

 

A downward-sloping curve stymies this 'carry' and curbs lending, and the consequences are clear when that lasts for as long as eight months.

Analysts at JP Morgan say regulators' actions successfully targeted a specific carry trade in a specific area, but there are many others and not all can be backstopped.

 

Private equity, venture capital, auto loans, levered loans, and credit card lending have all been profitable in the era of cheap short-term funding. But rising financing costs put the squeeze on them and hasten the end of the cycle.

 

"We believe we are in that stage and remain negative on risky asset classes," the JP Morgan analysts wrote in a note on Monday.

 

REASONS TO BE FEARFUL?

When banks' cost of funding exceeds the rate of return, they will naturally be less inclined to lend. Tighter credit conditions and lending standards mean consumers borrow and spend less, and firms hire and invest less and the risk of recession increases.

 

 

There are good reasons for caution right now.

 

Outstanding credit card debt has hit its highest on record at almost $1 trillion, in nominal terms, and average credit card rates have already hit a record high above 20%.

 

Average 30-year mortgage rates are back above 7%, having doubled in the last 18 months, while the personal savings rate remains anchored near multi-year lows below 5%.

 

The Fed's last Senior Loan Officer Survey shows that the net percentage of banks reporting tightening standards for commercial and industrial loans in the fourth quarter of last year jumped above 40%, levels consistent with past recessions.

 

"When you have record inversions for a prolonged period of time it does point to slower financial intermediation, slower credit and loan provisions," said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY.

 

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

 

 

 

Lets have some fun with ChatGPT generate Bond Pricing Calculator by ChatGPT

 

Here are step-by-step instructions:

 

1.     Ask ChatGPT to generate a bond pricing calculator using JavaScript in HTML format. You can ask something like: "Hey ChatGPT, could you please generate a bond pricing calculator using JavaScript in HTML format to calculate the bond pricing, given face value, coupon rate, yield to maturity, and years left to maturity?"

 

2.     ChatGPT should respond with the code for the calculator. Copy the code to your clipboard.

 

3.     Open Notepad or any other text editor and paste the code into a new document.

 

4.     Save the file as an HTML file. You can name it anything you like, but make sure the file extension is ".html". For example, you can name it "bond_calculator.html".

 

5.     Open the saved HTML file in your web browser (e.g. Chrome, Firefox, etc.) by double-clicking on the file or right-clicking and selecting "Open with". The bond calculator should load and be ready to use.

 

6.     Test the calculator by entering different values for all the inputs. Make sure the calculated bond price is correct and matches your expectations.

 

7.     If you find any issues with the calculator, you can ask ChatGPT to generate it again with the desired changes.

 

Or use the code from my experiment with ChatGPT earlier this week to get bond prices.

 

<!DOCTYPE html>

<html>

<head>

<title>Bond Pricing Calculator</title>

<script type="text/javascript">

function calculate() {

var faceValue = parseFloat(document.getElementById("faceValue").value);

var couponRate = parseFloat(document.getElementById("couponRate").value) / 100;

var yearsToMaturity = parseFloat(document.getElementById("yearsToMaturity").value);

var yieldToMaturity = parseFloat(document.getElementById("yieldToMaturity").value) / 100;

var presentValue = 0;

var annualInterest = couponRate * faceValue;

var discountFactor = 1 / Math.pow(1 + yieldToMaturity, yearsToMaturity);

presentValue = annualInterest * (1 - discountFactor) / yieldToMaturity + faceValue * discountFactor;

document.getElementById("result").innerHTML = "Bond Price: $" + presentValue.toFixed(2);

}

</script>

</head>

<body>

<h1>Bond Pricing Calculator</h1>

<p>Enter the following information:</p>

<form>

<label for="faceValue">Face Value:</label>

<input type="number" id="faceValue" value="1000"><br>

<label for="couponRate">Coupon Rate (%):</label>

<input type="number" id="couponRate" step="0.01" value="5"><br>

<label for="yearsToMaturity">Years to Maturity:</label>

<input type="number" id="yearsToMaturity" value="2"><br>

<label for="yieldToMaturity">Yield to Maturity (%):</label>

<input type="number" id="yieldToMaturity" step="0.01" value="2"><br><br>

<input type="button" value="Calculate" onclick="calculate()">

</form>

<p id="result"></p>

</body>

</html>

 

 

Chapter 8 Stock Valuation

 

ppt

 

 

Part I Dividend payout and Stock Valuation

 

For class discussion:

        Why can we use dividend to estimate a firms intrinsic value?

    Are future dividends predictable?

 

 

Ex/EFF DATE

TYPE

CASH AMOUNT

DECLARATION DATE

RECORD DATE

PAYMENT DATE

04/23/2019

CASH

$0.15

04/09/2019

04/24/2019

06/03/2019

01/30/2019

CASH

$0.15

01/17/2019

01/31/2019

03/01/2019

10/22/2018

CASH

$0.15

10/11/2018

10/23/2018

12/03/2018

07/20/2018

CASH

$0.15

07/13/2018

07/23/2018

09/04/2018

04/19/2018

CASH

$0.15

04/10/2018

04/20/2018

06/01/2018

01/29/2018

CASH

$0.13

01/16/2018

01/30/2018

03/01/2018

 

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/f/dividend-history

 

Wal-Mart Dividend History

    Refer to the following table for Wal-mart (WMTs dividend history)

 

http://stock.walmart.com/investors/stock-information/dividend-history/default.aspx