Session 8 - Discussion Session — TBTF, Stablecoins, & “Start a Bank?”
Pick a side. Then see both sides explained, why the instructor supports one side, and the final judge verdict. Animated colors make the win/lose obvious (and fun).
Debate 1 — Too Big To Fail (TBTF)
Side A — “Big banks will always be bailed out”
Systemic risk is so dangerous that the government must rescue large banks to avoid collapse.
Evidence they point to
- Past emergency guarantees during crises.
- Interconnected payment systems and panic dynamics.
Weak spots
- Post-2008 tools target resolution without taxpayer loss.
- Equity and certain debts designed to absorb losses first.
Side B — “Failure allowed; services preserved”
Modern frameworks aim to let a big bank fail while keeping deposits/payments running. Investors take losses first (bail-in/TLAC).
Evidence they point to
- Resolution planning (“living wills”), TLAC/bail-in structures.
- Supervisory stress tests and higher buffers for GSIBs.
Weak spots
- Extreme, fast-moving crises may still push extraordinary measures.
- Cross-border coordination can be messy.
Debate 2 — Stablecoins & Banks
Side A — “Stablecoins will kill banks”
Deposits move to stablecoins, banks lose funding, and banking becomes obsolete.
Evidence they point to
- Rapid growth during crypto upcycles.
- Fast settlement on some chains vs legacy rails.
Weak spots
- Most stablecoins still depend on banks/custodians or money funds.
- Run/regulatory/custody risks; on/off-ramps require banks.
Side B — “Coexistence & adaptation”
Asset-backed stablecoins interact with banks and Treasuries. They shift funding mix/pricing and push banks to innovate (tokenized deposits, faster rails).
Evidence they point to
- Custodial banks and money funds hold reserves/collateral.
- Upgrades to bank rails (RTP/instant) narrow UX gaps.
Weak spots
- Large scale could pressure low-cost deposits at the margin.
- Operational and regulatory clarity still evolving.
Debate 3 — Start-a-Bank?
Side A — “Easy to start a bank”
Just raise money and open; tech makes it cheap and fast.
Evidence they cite
- Visible front-end launches in months.
- Bank-as-a-Service (BaaS) partners reduce build.
Weak spots
- Front-end ≠ charter. De novo approval needs governance, risk, compliance track record.
- Ongoing supervision and capital planning are continuous, not one-off.
Side B — “Hard, heavily regulated”
Requires charter, capital, experienced management, strong compliance, and often years of review.
Evidence they cite
- Multi-year de novo timelines in many jurisdictions.
- Capital and liquidity planning, stress testing, resolution thinking.
Weak spots
- Partner models can deliver products without full charter (trade-offs apply).
- Some regions have sandbox/limited licenses that shorten time.
Mini Tool — De novo vs Partner (toy)
Results:
Toy math: de novo burn ≈ team × $180k/yr × (months/12) + 15% overhead + compliance setup; partner ≈ fee × users × 12. Not advice.