Yield Curve (2020-2025)

Interactive visualization of yield curves across different maturities from 2020 to January 15, 2025.

Analysis of the Yield Curve

1. Normal Yield Curve (2020)

The curve slopes upward, with short-term rates (~1.54% for 1-month) lower than long-term rates (~2.28% for 30-year). This indicates expectations of steady economic growth and is typical of a healthy economy.

2. Extremely Low Rates (2021)

Rates are near zero for short-term maturities (~0.09% for 1-month) and remain low for long-term maturities (~1.81% for 30-year). Reflects the Federal Reserve’s accommodative monetary policy to stimulate the economy during the pandemic.

3. Gradual Recovery and Steepening (2022)

Short-term rates rise slightly (~0.04% for 1-month to ~0.10% for 3-month), but long-term rates remain subdued (~2.09% for 30-year). Indicates modest economic recovery as the pandemic's impact wanes.

4. Rapidly Rising Rates (2023)

Short-term rates (~4.32% for 1-month) and long-term rates (~3.67% for 30-year) increase sharply. The curve inverts for intermediate maturities, signaling potential recession risks amid aggressive rate hikes.

5. Flattened Yield Curve (2024)

Rates peak at short maturities (~5.54% for 1-month), with long-term rates slightly lower (~4.21% for 30-year). Suggests the Fed may pause rate hikes as inflation shows signs of slowing.

6. Elevated and Slightly Upward-Sloping Curve (2025)

Short-term rates decrease slightly (~4.40% for 1-month), while long-term rates increase slightly (~4.88% for 30-year). Reflects that inflation is moderating, and the Fed may consider lowering rates in the future.