FIN415 Class Web Page, Spring '19

Jacksonville University

Instructor: Maggie Foley

The Syllabus

Term Project Part I
Term project part II  (excel question)

 

Weekly SCHEDULE, LINKS, FILES and Questions

Week

Coverage, HW, Supplements

-        Required

 

Videos (optional)

Week

1

Marketwatch Stock Trading Game (Pass code: havefun)

Use the information and directions below to join the game.

1.     URL for your game: 
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/jufin415-19s    

2.     Password for this private game: havefun.

3.     Click on the 'Join Now' button to get started.

4.     If you are an existing MarketWatch member, login. If you are a new user, follow the link for a Free account - it's easy!

5.     Follow the instructions and start trading!

6. Game will be over on 4/17/2019

 

Week1, Part I

Part I: Review of the Economy

Read the whole paper here (FYI, 132 pages)

 

Text Box: Quarterly Data | Economic Growth and Inflation | Q1 2017 - Q4 2019

 

GDP Growth rate

 

Q1

2017

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

 

Q1

2018

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

 

Q1

2019

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

World

3.1

3.2

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.1

G7

1.9

2.2

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.0

2.0

1.8

United States

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.9

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.5

2.3

2.2

Canada

2.3

3.8

3.1

3.0

2.3

1.9

2.1

2.2

2.4

2.1

2.1

2.0

Japan

1.5

1.6

2.0

2.0

1.0

1.3

0.9

1.1

1.5

1.2

1.4

0.5

UnitedKingdom

1.8

1.9

1.8

1.4

1.1

1.2

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

Euroarea

2.1

2.5

2.8

2.7

2.4

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

France

1.4

2.3

2.7

2.8

2.2

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.6

1.8

1.7

1.7

Germany

3.4

0.9

2.2

2.2

1.4

2.3

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.9

1.7

Italy

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.3

1.2

0.9

1.0

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.1

BRIC

5.5

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.9

6.0

5.8

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

Brazil

0.0

0.4

1.4

2.1

1.2

1.0

1.5

1.9

2.0

2.5

2.5

2.5

Russia

0.6

2.5

2.2

0.9

1.3

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.8

India

6.1

5.6

6.3

7.0

7.7

8.2

7.5

7.2

7.0

7.1

7.4

7.5

China

6.9

6.9

6.8

6.8

6.8

6.7

6.5

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.3

6.2

 

 

Inflation

 

Q1

2017

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

 

Q1

2018

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

 

Q1

2019

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

World

2.9

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.8

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.7

G7

2.0

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.0

UnitedStates

2.6

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

Canada

1.9

1.3

1.4

1.8

2.1

2.3

2.7

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.1

Japan

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.6

1.3

0.6

1.1

0.9

0.7

1.2

1.0

1.8

UnitedKingdom

2.1

2.7

2.8

3.0

2.7

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.1

2.0

Euroarea

1.8

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.7

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.6

France

1.5

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.5

2.2

2.6

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.6

1.6

Germany

1.9

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.5

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

1.9

1.8

1.7

Italy

1.4

1.6

1.2

1.1

0.9

1.0

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.2

1.2

BRIC

2.3

1.9

2.0

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.0

2.9

Brazil

4.6

3.0

2.5

2.9

2.7

4.4

4.5

4.2

4.7

4.2

4.1

4.3

Russia

4.3

4.4

3.0

2.5

2.4

2.6

3.5

3.7

4.0

4.0

3.9

4.0

India

3.6

2.2

3.0

4.6

4.6

4.8

3.9

4.6

5.0

5.0

4.9

4.8

China

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.2

1.8

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.5

2.3

2.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Economic Indicator USA 2014-2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Population(million)

319

321

324

326

328

330

332

334

336

339

GDPpercapita(USD)

54,952

56,718

57,815

59,792

62,568

65,133

67,224

69,351

71,560

73,856

GDP(USDbn)

17,522

18,219

18,707

19,485

20,530

21,506

22,336

23,188

24,078

25,007

EconomicGrowth(NominalGDP,ann.var.%)

4.4

4

2.7

4.2

5.4

4.8

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.9

EconomicGrowth(GDP,ann.var.%)

2.5

2.9

1.6

2.2

2.9

2.5

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.9

DomesticDemand(ann.var.%)

2.6

3.6

1.8

2.5

2.9

2.6

1.8

1.9

2

2

PrivateConsumption(ann.var.%)

2.9

3.7

2.7

2.5

2.6

2.4

1.9

2

2

2.1

GovernmentConsumption(ann.var.%)

-0.9

1.9

1.4

-0.1

1.5

1.8

1

0.8

0.7

0.6

FixedInvestment(ann.var.%)

6.3

3.4

1.7

4.8

-

-

-

-

-

-

Non-ResidentialFixedInvestment(ann.var.%)

6.9

1.8

0.5

5.3

6.9

4.1

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.4

ResidentialInvestment(ann.var.%)

3.9

10.1

6.5

3.3

-

-

-

-

-

-

Exports(G&S,ann.var.%)

4.3

0.6

-0.1

3

4.4

2.7

2.7

3.2

3.4

3.6

Imports(G&S,ann.var.%)

5.1

5.5

1.9

4.6

4.1

3.6

3

3.3

3.3

3.4

IndustrialProduction(ann.var.%)

3.1

-1

-1.9

1.6

3.7

2.6

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.6

RetailSales(ann.var.%)

4.3

2.6

3.1

4.3

-

-

-

-

-

-

LightVehicleSales(million)

16.5

17.4

17.5

17.1

17

16.7

16.5

16.7

16.9

17.1

HousingStarts(million)

1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.8

S&P/Case-ShillerHomePrices(ann.var.%)

7.9

5

5.2

5.9

6.3

4.2

3

3.1

3.3

3.6

Unemployment(%ofactivepopulation,aop)

6.2

5.3

4.9

4.4

3.9

3.6

3.8

4.1

4.3

4.5

FiscalBalance(Federal,%ofGDP)

-2.8

-2.4

-3.1

-3.4

-4.2

-4.8

-5

-5.3

-5.5

-5.7

PublicDebt(%ofGDP)

104

104

107

105

107

108

109

111

112

114

MonetaryandFinancialSector

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Money(ann.var.ofM2%)

6.2

5.8

6.8

5.6

-

-

-

-

-

-

Inflation(CPI,ann.var.%,eop)

0.7

0.7

2.1

2.1

-

-

-

-

-

-

Inflation(CPI,ann.var.%,aop)

1.6

0.1

1.3

2.1

2.5

2.3

2.1

2

2

2

Inflation(Core,ann.var.%,aop)

1.7

1.8

2.2

1.8

-

-

-

-

-

-

Inflation(PPI,ann.var.%,aop)

1.6

-0.9

0.4

2.3

-

-

-

-

-

-

FederalFundsTargetRate(%,eop)

0.25

0.5

0.75

1.5

2.48

3.16

3.08

2.89

2.83

2.76

3-MonthLIBORrate(%,eop)

0.26

0.61

1

1.69

2.64

3.26

3.24

3.07

3.04

3

10-YearBondYield(%,eop)

2.17

2.27

2.45

2.41

3.12

3.31

3.18

3.19

3.25

3.31

ExchangeRate(USDperEUR,eop)

1.21

1.09

1.05

1.2

1.17

1.21

1.25

1.27

1.28

1.28

ExchangeRate(USDperEUR,aop)

1.33

1.11

1.11

1.13

1.19

1.19

1.23

1.26

1.27

1.28

ExternalSector

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CurrentAccountBalance(%ofGDP)

-2.1

-2.2

-2.3

-2.3

-2.5

-2.7

-2.8

-2.9

-3

-3.1

CurrentAccountBalance(USDbn)

-365

-408

-433

-449

-515

-572

-626

-680

-721

-765

MerchandiseTradeBalance(USDbn)

-750

-762

-751

-808

-

-

-

-

-

-

ForeignDirectInvestment(USDbn)

202

466

457

275

-

-

-

-

-

-

 

 

For class discussion:

Any interesting findings? Any surprises? And why?

Read Economic snapshot for G7 countries (handout and paper attached here), what is your take away from this paper?

 

 

 

Text Box: Quarterly Data | Exchange Rates | Q1 2018 - Q4 2019

 

UnitedStates

Keyexchangerates

 

 

Q1

2018

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

 

Q1

2019

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

Euroarea

USDperEUR

1.23

1.17

1.16

1.17

1.18

1.20

1.21

1.21

Canada

CADperUSD

1.29

1.31

1.29

1.29

1.29

1.28

1.28

1.28

Japan

JPYperUSD

106

111

114

111

110

109

108

108

UnitedKingdom

USDperGBP

1.40

1.32

1.30

1.32

1.33

1.36

1.38

1.40

Brazil

BRLperUSD

3.31

3.88

4.05

3.87

3.81

3.79

3.80

3.80

Russia

RUBperUSD

57.8

57.1

57.3

57.7

57.8

57.8

58.4

58.7

India

INRperUSD

65.1

68.5

72.5

72.6

72.0

71.9

71.7

71.5

China

CNYperUSD

6.28

6.62

6.87

6.87

6.87

6.86

6.83

6.83

 

Euroarea

Keyexchangerates

 

 

Q1

2018

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

 

Q1

2019

Q2

 

Q3

 

Q4

Canada

CADperEUR

1.59

1.53

1.50

1.51

1.51

1.53

1.54

1.55

Japan

JPYperEUR

131

129

132

129

129

131

131

131

UnitedKingdom

GBPperEUR

0.88

0.88

0.89

0.88

0.88

0.88

0.88

0.87

Brazil

BRLperEUR

4.06

4.53

4.70

4.52

4.48

4.55

4.60

4.60

Russia

RUBperEUR

71.0