­­­­FIN 435 Class Web Page, Spring '16

Instructor: Maggie Foley

Jacksonville University

The Syllabus
For Reference: www.jufinance.com/fin500_15f (FIN500 website)

 

Weekly SCHEDULE, LINKS, FILES and Questions 

Week

Coverage, HW, Supplements

-        Required

WSJ Papers for Discussion  in following week  

Videos (optional)

Week 1

Exit Exam Questions  

Marketwatch Game

Use the information and directions below to join the game.

1.     URL for your game: 
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/fin435-ju

2.     Password for this private game: havefun.

3.     Click on the 'Join Now' button to get started.

4.     If you are an existing MarketWatch member, login. If you are a new user, follow the link for a Free account - it's easy!

5.     Follow the instructions and start trading!

Daily earning announcement: http://www.zacks.com/earnings/earnings-calendar

IPO schedule:  http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/ipo-calendar

 

 

Chapter 3  Financial Statement Analysis

Chapter 3 PPT

Chapter 3 Case study (first case study, due in the 4th week)

Q1: Why are financial statements important?

Q2: What are the three major financial statements?

Q3: Free cash flow: concept and equation. What is FCF?

image003.jpg

Capital expenditure = increases in NFA + depreciation

Or, capital expenditure = increases in GFA

 

 

Chapter 4 Ratio Analysis

Chapter 4 PPT

Chapter 4 case study (second case study, due in the 4th week)

Reference: Ratio Formulas

Reference: Commonly used ratio explained

 

HW of chapters 3, 4 (due on 1/27)

1.                  Firm A's sales last year = $280,000, net income = $23,000.  What was its profit margin? (8.21%)

2.         Firm As total assets = $415,000 and its net income = $32,750.  What was its return on total assets (ROA)? (7.89%)

3.         Firm As total common equity = $405,000 and its net income = $70,000.  What was its ROE? (17.28%)

4.         Firm As stock price at the end of last year = $23.50 and its earnings per share for the year = $1.30.  What was its P/E ratio? (18.08)

5.         Meyer Inc's assets are $625,000, and its total debt outstanding is $185,000.  The new CFO wants to establish a debt/assets ratio of 55%.  The size of the firm does not change.  How much debt must the company add or subtract to achieve the target debt ratio? ($158,750)

6.         Chang Corp. has $375,000 of assets, and it uses only common equity capital (zero debt).  Its sales for the last year were $595,000, and its net income was $25,000.  Stockholders recently voted in a new management team that has promised to lower costs and get the return on equity up to 15.0%.  What profit margin would the firm need in order to achieve the 15% ROE, holding everything else constant? ( 9.45%)

7.        A firm has $300 in inventory, $600 in fixed assets, $200 in accounts receivable, $100 in accounts payable, and $50 in cash. What is the amount of the current assets? ($550)

8.        Art's Boutique has sales of $640,000 and costs of $480,000. Interest expense is $40,000 and depreciation is $60,000. The tax rate is 34%. What is the net income? ( $39,600)

9.        Use the following information to prepare the cash flow statement in 2008 of Nabors, Inc.

image002.jpgimage003.jpg      

 

 

Useful website for stock picks 

 

www.finviz.com (stock screener)

www.finance.yahoo.com

www.getaom.com

money.msn.com/investing

zacks.com

minyanville.com

moneychimp.com

navellier.investor.com/portfolio-grader/

nasdaq.com

marketwatch.com

superstockscreener.com

gurufocus.com

portfoliomoney.com

stockconsultant.com

marketgrader.com

moderngraham.com

stockpickr.com

stockta.com

thestreet.com

askstockguru.com

quotes.wsj.com

oldschoolvalue.com

fool.com

analystratings.com

barchart.com

stock2own.com

theonlineinvestor.com

seekingalpha.com

 

 

 

How the market works

Experts Explain: Financial Statements

 

 

WorldCom - What Went Wrong

 

 

How Did Enron Make Their Money, Hide Their Finances, Fail and Get Caught? Financial Reporting (2004)

 

 

 

 

Week 2-1

Part I - Chapter 5 Time Value of Money

ppt

 

Math Formula

FV = PV *(1+r)^n

PV = FV / ((1+r)^n)

N = ln(FV/PV) / ln(1+r)

Rate = (FV/PV)1/n -1

Annuity: N = ln(FV/C*r+1)/(ln(1+r))

Or N = ln(1/(1-(PV/C)*r)))/ (ln(1+r))

 

Excel Formulas 

To get FV, use FV function.         =abs(fv(rate, nper, pmt, pv))

 

To get PV, use PV function          = abs(pv(rate, nper, pmt, fv))

 

To get r, use rate function             = rate(nper,  pmt, pv, -fv)

 

To get number of years, use nper function                                  = nper(rate,  pmt, pv, -fv)

 

To get annuity payment, use PMT function                                           = pmt(rate, nperpv, -fv)

 

To get Effective rate (EAR), use Effect function                              = effect(nominal_ratenpery)

 

To get annual percentage rate (APR), use nominal function       = nominal(effective ratge,  npery)

 

 

Chapter 5 HW Assignments

1.                   You are going to deposit certain amount in the next four years. Your saving account offers 5% of annual interest rate.

First year:            $800

Second year:      $900

Third year:          $1000

Fourth year:       $1200.

How much you can withdraw four years later? How much is the lump sum value as of today (NPV)?

 

2.      Today, you are purchasing a 15-year, 8 percent annuity at a cost of $70,000. The annuity will pay annual payments. What is the amount of each payment? ($8,178.07)

 

3.      Mr. Jones just won a lottery prize that will pay him $5,000 a year for thirty years. He will receive the first payment today. If Mr. Jones can earn 5.5 percent on his money, what are his winnings worth to him today? ($76,665.51)

 

4. Shannon wants to have $10,000 in an investment account three years from now. The account will pay 0.4 percent interest per month. If Shannon saves money every month, starting one month from now, how much will she have to save each month? ($258.81)

 
5. Trevor's Tires is offering a set of 4 premium tires on sale for $550. The credit terms are 24 months at $20 per month. What is the interest rate on this offer? (12.74 percent)


6. Top Quality Investments will pay you $2,000 a year for 25 years in exchange for $19,000 today. What interest rate are you earning on this annuity? (9.42 percent)


7. You have just won the lottery! You can receive $10,000 a year for 8 years or $57,000 as a lump sum payment today. What is the interest rate on the annuity? (8.22 percent)


8. Around Town Movers recently purchased a new truck costing $97,000. The firm financed this purchase at 8.25 percent interest with monthly payments of $2,379.45. How many years will it take the firm to pay off this debt? (4.0 years)

 

9.  Expansion, Inc. acquired an additional business unit for $310,000. The seller agreed to accept annual payments of $67,000 at an interest rate of 6.5 percent. How many years will it take Expansion, Inc. to pay for this purchase? (5.68 years)


10. You want to retire early so you know you must start saving money. Thus, you have decided to save $4,500 a year, starting at age 25. You plan to retire as soon as you can accumulate $500,000. If you can earn an average of 11 percent on your savings, how old will you be when you retire? (49.74 years)


11. You just received a credit offer in an email. The company is offering you $6,000 at 12.8 percent interest. The monthly payment is only $110. If you accept this offer, how long will it take you to pay off the loan? (82.17 months)


12. Fred was persuaded to open a credit card account and now owes $5,150 on this card. Fred is not charging any additional purchases because he wants to get this debt paid in full. The card has an APR of 15.1 percent. How much longer will it take Fred to pay off this balance if he makes monthly payments of $70 rather than $85? (93.04 months)


13. The condominium at the beach that you want to buy costs $249,500. You plan to make a cash down payment of 20 percent and finance the balance over 10 years at 6.75 percent. What will be the amount of your monthly mortgage payment? ($2,291.89)

 

14. What is the future value of weekly payments of $25 for six years at 10 percent? ($10,673.90)

 

 

Week  2-2

Chapter 6 Interest rate

ppt

chapter 6 case study (third case study, due in the 4th week)

 

Market data website:

      http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/Default.jsp (FINRA bond market data)

Market watch on Wall Street Journal has daily yield curve and interest rate information. 

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/pftools/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yph8TRldW6k


 Formula

 

r           = r* + IP + DRP + LP + MRP

            r           = required return on a debt security

            r*          = real risk-free rate of interest

            IP         = inflation premium

            DRP     = default risk premium

            LP        = liquidity premium

            MRP     = maturity risk premium

image001.jpg

 

MRPt = 0.1% (t – 1)

 

DRPt  + LPt =  Corporate spread * (1.02)(t−1)

 

Homework 1-6

HW1  The following yields on U.S. Treasury securities were taken from a financial publication:

image002.jpg

  1. Plot a yield curve based on these data.
  2. What type of yield curve is shown?
  3. What information does this graph tell you?
  4. Based on this yield curve, if you needed to borrow money for longer than 1 year, would it make sense for you to borrow short term and renew the loan or borrow long term? Explain.

 HW2 You read in The Wall Street Journal that 30-day T-bills are currently yielding 5.5%. Your brother-in-law, a broker at Safe and Sound Securities, has given you the following estimates of current interest rate premiums:

    • Inflation premium = 3.25%
    • Liquidity premium = 0.6%
    • Maturity risk premium = 1.8%
    • Default risk premium = 2.15%

On the basis of these data, what is the real risk-free rate of return?  

 HW3 The real risk-free rate is 3%. Inflation is expected to be 2% this year and 4% during the next 2 years. Assume that the maturity risk premium is zero. What is the yield on 2-year Treasury securities? What is the yield on 3-year Treasury securities?

 HW4 A Treasury bond that matures in 10 years has a yield of 6%. A 10-year corporate bond has a yield of 8%. Assume that the liquidity premium on the corporate bond is 0.5%. What is the default risk premium on the corporate bond?  

HW5 The real risk-free rate is 3%, and inflation is expected  to be 3% for the next 2 years. A 2-year Treasury security yields 6.2%. What is the maturity risk premium for the 2-year security?

 HW6 One-year Treasury securities yield 5%. The market anticipates that 1 year from now, 1-year Treasury securities will yield 6%. If the pure expectations theory is correct, what is the yield today for 2-year Treasury securities?

 

 

Rattled Investors Paying a Premium for Longer-Term Treasurys

Q: What is negative term premium? Why do investors pay more for long term treasury bonds than for short term bond?

 

Fed Almost Certain to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged at Next Meeting

Q: Why does the market believe that Fed will not raise interest rate in the upcoming FOMC meeting? 

 

Is the Market Right That the Fed Is Wrong?

Q: Do you think that Fed is responsible for the recent volatile market?

 

Hedge Fund Challenges Peru on Land Bonds

Q: What is the issue here? Why does it sound like it is so difficult for bondholders to get their investment back?

 

Outsider Is Tapped to Lead Adidas

Q: Who is the new CEO of Adidas? Can he turn the company around as expected?

 

Is Bitcoin Breaking Up?

Q: What is the problem that bitcoin is facing in this developer’s view? Why is it hard to fix this problem?

 

China Trying to Allay Global Concerns About Its Currency Regime

Q: China has $4 trillion foreign exchange reserve. So can China manipulate its currency?

 

Dollar Rises Against Euro, European Currencies After ECB Move

Q: Why? ECB is still pushing for easy monetary policy. US starts to raise interest rate. Do the differences in monetary policy have any impact in currency value?

 

Europe Bank Recovery Hit By Market Tumult

Q: Why are the European banks in a state of delayed recovery, as compared with their US peers?

 

Europe’s Lower-Rated Debt Moves Higher on Amundi’s List

Q: Why does Amundi buy lower rated debt in European market but buy investment grade bond in the US market?

 

Private-Equity Portfolios Become Hot Spots to Shop for Acquisitions

Q: What are the pros and cons in buying companies from private equity firms?’

 

Why Winning the Powerball Jackpot Is Harder Than Ever

Q: Why?

 

Fears of Venezuela Default Grow Amid Drop in Oil Prices

Q: What does Venezuela’s economy reply on? Oil. Right? So why can the fall in oil prices cause default of this country? 

 

 

Boards Get More Independent, but Ties Endure

Q: Why?

 

Three, Four, Five? How Many Board Seats Are Too Many?

Q: What is the concern here is a person sits in more than four seats?

What is interest rates

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pod73wrvdSQ

 

 

Gerald Celente: Low Interest Rates are Building the Biggest Bubble in Modern History - 9/21/14

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTpK6Te6tYI

 

How interest rates are set

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oz5hNemSdWc

 

What happens if Fed raise interest rates

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OP-3Ui6K1s

 

Week4

Mid Term (due of cases, and the your answers of all WSJ Questions in the mid column)

 

Mid Term Exam Part I – Conceptual

 Study Guide (close book section)

 

Multiple Choice Questions (15*2=30 and the last two are bonus questions)

 

  1. Net income increased but cash dropped. Why?
  2. Annual report concept question
  3. Annual report concept question
  4. Annual report concept question
  5. Yield curve question

6.    Default risk premium, maturity risk premium and liquidity risk premium question

7.    Interest rate question (interest rate break down)

8.    Interest rate break down. 

9.    Yield curve question

  1. Yield curve question

11. Default risk premium, maturity risk premium and liquidity risk premium question

12. Interest rate question (interest rate break down)

13. Interest rate break down. 

14. Yield curve question

15. Comparison of interest rates

16. Comparison of interest rates

17. Expectation theory

 

Mid Term Exam Part II – Calculation – Study Guide

 

Multiple Choice (20*3.5=70)

 

1.      Interest rate calculation: given real rate, inflation, market risk premium.

2.      Calculate default risk premium: given t bond rate, corp bond rate, liquidity premium, market risk premium.

3.      Calculate default risk premium, given t bond rate, corp bond rate, liquidity premium, market risk premium.

4.       Maturity risk premium, given corp bond rate, t bond rate, real rate, default premium, liquidity premium and inflation.

5.      Expectation theory to figure out future rate.

6.      Expectation theory to figure out future rate.

7.      Expectation theory to figure out future rate.

8.       Time value of money question

9.      Time value of money question

10.    Time value of money question

11.    Time value of money question

12.    FCF calculation

13.    FCF calculation

14.    Operating cash flow calculation

15.    Investment cash flow calculation

16.    Financing cash flow calculation

17.    Ratio analysis calculation

18.    Ratio analysis calculation

19.    Ratio analysis calculation

20.    Yield curve questions

21.    Yield curve questions (optional)

22.    Yield curve questions (optional)

 

 

 

Week5

Final is non-cumulative and starts from here J

 

Chapter 7 Bond Evaluation

ppt

 

Market data website:

1.   FINRA

      http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/Default.jsp (FINRA bond market data)

2.      WSJ

Market watch on Wall Street Journal has daily yield curve and bond yield information. 

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/pftools/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yph8TRldW6k

3.      Bond Online

http://www.bondsonline.com/Todays_Market/

 

Chapter 7 case study 

   

No other Homework for chapter 7. Just finish the case study and review for the following. 

1.      Can calculate price and YTM.

2.      Understand relation between price and YTM.

3.      Understand why bond price is changing daily.

4.      Can figure out YTC.

5.      Can draw graph of price and YTM.

6.      Understand why investing in bond is risky as well. Understand the resources of risk in bond market.

7.      Can calculate current yield, capital gain yield.

8.      Can find bond information on FINRA.

 image004.jpg

To calculate bond price  in EXCEL (annual coupon bond):

Price=abs(pv(yield to maturity, years left to maturity, coupon rate*1000, 1000)

 

To calculate yield to maturity (annual coupon bond)::

Yield to maturity = rate(years left to maturity, coupon rate *1000, -price, 1000)

 

To calculate bond price (semi-annual coupon bond):

Price=abs(pv(yield to maturity/2, years left to maturity*2, coupon rate*1000/2, 1000)

 

To calculate yield to maturity (semi-annual coupon bond):

Yield to maturity = rate(years left to maturity*2, coupon rate *1000/2, -price, 1000)*2

 

Math Equations (FYI)

 

image005.jpg

C: Coupon, M: Par, $1,000; i: Yield to maturity; n: years left to maturity

 

image006.jpg

For Semi-annual, F=2 for semi-annual coupon

 

 

HOMEWORK

 

1.                  AAA firm’ bonds will mature in eight years, and coupon is $65. YTM is 8.2%. Bond’s market value? ($903.04)

2.                  AAA firm’s bonds’ market value is $1,120, with 15 years maturity and coupon of $85. What is YTM?  (7.17%)

3.         AAA firm’ bonds market value is $1,050, with six years to maturity and coupon of $75. Current yield?   (7.14%)

4.         AAA firm’s semiannual bond has 12 years maturity and coupon rate of 8.75% semiannually. The firm also sells annual bonds with all the same condition except the coupon is paid annually (means ytm is the same). What is the price of this annual coupon bond?(hint: the two bonds should offer the same annual effective rate, not semi-rate * 2) (986.25)

5.         Sadik Inc.'s bonds currently sell for $1,180 and have a par value of $1,000.  They pay a $105 annual coupon and have a 15-year maturity, but they can be called in 5 years at $1,100.  What is their yield to call (YTC)? (7.74%)

6.         Malko Enterprises’ bonds currently sell for $1,050.  They have a 6-year maturity, an annual coupon of $75, and a par value of $1,000.  What is their current yield? (7.14%)

7.         Assume that you are considering the purchase of a 20-year, noncallable bond with an annual coupon rate of 9.5%.  The bond has a face value of $1,000, and it makes semiannual interest payments.  If you require an 8.4% nominal yield to maturity on this investment, what is the maximum price you should be willing to pay for the bond? ($1,105.69)

 8.        Grossnickle Corporation issued 20-year, noncallable, 7.5% annual coupon bonds at their par value of $1,000 one year ago.  Today, the market interest rate on these bonds is 5.5%.  What is the current price of the bonds, given that they now have 19 years to maturity? ($1,232.15)

 9.        McCue Inc.'s bonds currently sell for $1,250.  They pay a $90 annual coupon, have a 25-year maturity, and a $1,000 par value, but they can be called in 5 years at $1,050.  Assume that no costs other than the call premium would be incurred to call and refund the bonds, and also assume that the yield curve is horizontal, with rates expected to remain at current levels on into the future.  What is the difference between this bond's YTM and its YTC?  (Subtract the YTC from the YTM; it is possible to get a negative answer.) (2.62%)

10.       Taussig Corp.'s bonds currently sell for $1,150.  They have a 6.35% annual coupon rate and a 20-year maturity, but they can be called in 5 years at $1,067.50.  Assume that no costs other than the call premium would be incurred to call and refund the bonds, and also assume that the yield curve is horizontal, with rates expected to remain at current levels on into the future.  Under these conditions, what rate of return should an investor expect to earn if he or she purchases these bonds? (4.2%)

11.       A 25-year, $1,000 par value bond has an 8.5% annual payment coupon.  The bond currently sells for $925.  If the yield to maturity remains at its current rate, what will the price be 5 years from now? ($930.11)

 

 

 

 Wells To Pay $1.2 Billion In Mortgage Accord

Q: The government is suing Wells Fargo for what? Shall Wells Fargo be fully responsible for what had happened in the mortgage market?

 

 

Recession alarm may not ring this time (Paper not available in wsj yet. Hard copy is available)

Q1: In this paper, the author summarizes the anticipation of the economy in association with different types of yield curve. Please list each yield curve and its predication of the economy.   

Q2: “Long term interest rate fell below short term interest rates, producing a yield curve inversion” – This is an indicator of upcoming recession.

 

 

A bond star, buried by junk, looks for daylight

Q1: Why does Mr. Fuss believe that the current market stress differs from those in the past?

Q2: In Mr. Fuss’ view, junk bonds are worth buying now. Why?

 

 

The Fed Can’t Save Market Yet

Q: Not raising interest rate is the only strategy that Fed can do to save the market. But it might not work this time. What is your opinion?

 

 

U.S. Debt Burden: It’s Gotten a Bit Less Bad

Q: What is debt burden? Where does it come from? Why is it getting less bad?

 

 

Negative Interest Rates Are a Dead End

Q: Now it is a interest rate war. Where can investors invest when interest rate is actually negative? Money will flow out to other countries. Not a concern? What benefit can negative interest rate bring?

 

 

Argentina Debt Deal Faces Hurdles Despite Bond Offer

Q: The offer represented 75% of the amount bondholders say they are owed.  Why did  Argentina default on debt in 2001? Do you think that this resolution is reasonable? Why or why not?

Treasury Bond Auction Website

http://www.treasurydirect.gov

 

 

What is duration? (not required but useful)

Duration is defined as the weighted average of the present value of the cash flows and is used as a measure of a bond price's response to changes in yield.

If duration = 10 years, then for 1% increase in interest rate, the bond price will drop by 10 times of 1%, which is 10%.

You can calculate duration in excel.

Syntax

DURATION(settlement, maturity, coupon, yld, frequency, [basis])

 

Bond Duration Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HFLGNaEWl8

 

 

 

How to calculate bond prices using exact

date? (not required but useful)

 

Use price function in Excel. Returns the price

 per $100 face value of a security that pays periodic interest.

Syntax

PRICE(settlement, maturity, rate, yld, redemption, frequency, [basis])

 

Excel How to use the PRICE formula video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UzFPKv2Tnw

 

 

 

Calculate bond yield using exact date?(not required but useful)

 

Use YIELD to calculate bond yield.

Syntax

YIELD(settlement,maturity,rate,pr,

redemption, frequency, basis)

Excel yield function video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vi27yLPgwZc

 

 

 

Risk of Bonds

Bond risk (video)

Bond risk – credit risk (video)

Bond risk – interest rate risk (video)

 

 

Week6

Chapter 8 Risk and Return

ppt

Chapter 8 case study

Summary of the steps in the case study:

1st, calculate expected return based on probabilities and corresponding returns

2nd, calculate standard deviation based  on probabilities and corresponding returns

3rd,  calculate expected return and standard deviation based on probabilities historical returns

4th, Use corr function to calculate correlation based on two stocks’ historical returns.

5th, Understand the concept of correlation and can pick stocks based on correlations

6th,understand what is beta and can calculate beta using slope function

7th, can use CAMP to calculate stock returns.

 

 

 Chapter 9 Stock Return Evaluation

ppt

 

Stock screening tools

 

·         Reuters stock screener to help select stocks

http://stockscreener.us.reuters.com/Stock/US/

 

·         FINVIZ.com

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx

 

·         WSJ stock screen

http://online.wsj.com/public/quotes/stock_screener.html

 

·         Simply the Web's Best Financial Charts

 Stock charts

 

 

MSN Money

You can find analyst rating from MSN money

For instance,

ANALYSTS RATINGS

Zacks average brokerage recommendation is Moderate Buy

RECOMMENDATIONS

CURRENT

1 MONTH AGO

2 MONTHS AGO

3 MONTHS AGO

Strong Buy

26

26

25

24

Moderate Buy

4

4

4

4

Hold

8

8

8

9

Moderate Sell

0

0

0

0

Strong Sell

0

0

0

0

Mean Rec.

1.51

1.51

1.53

1.58

 

How to pick stocks

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)Explained

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JApBhv3VLTo

 

Ranking stocks using PEG ratio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bekW_hTehNU

 

Summary of stock screening rules from class discussion

PEG<1

PE<15  (? FB’s PE>100?)

Growth rate<20

ROE>10%

Analyst ranking: strong buy only

Zacks average =1 (from Ranking stocks using PEG ratio)

current price>5

 

 

 

Useful website (recommended by David and Phil. Thanks, David and Phil)

 FYI (Based on lecture by David and Phil’ Video here)

www.finance.yahoo.com

www.finviz.com

www.getaom.com

money.msn.com/investing

zacks.com

minyanville.com

moneychimp.com

navellier.investor.com/portfolio-grader/

nasdaq.com

marketwatch.com

superstockscreener.com

gurufocus.com

portfoliomoney.com

stockconsultant.com

marketgrader.com

moderngraham.com

stockpickr.com

stockta.com

thestreet.com

askstockguru.com

quotes.wsj.com

oldschoolvalue.com

fool.com

analystratings.com

barchart.com

stock2own.com

theonlineinvestor.com

seekingalpha.com

 

 Homework:

Pick a couple of stocks using the techniques learned today. And explain why you pick those stocks. How diversified is your portfolio?

What’s Going On in the Markets? 5 Theories to Explain the Chaos

Q: What is going on in the market? And why?

 

 

Negative rate nod as yields decline

Q: Sorry the paper is not available on WSJ.com.

Tell us your understanding of negative interest rate, please.

 

Morgan Stanley Trader Offers Grim View

Q: What is “stress test” mentioned in the paper? After the release of the stress test results, in your view, the market’s view for banks will be more pessimistic or more optimistic?

 

A look at Deutsche Bank’s Bond buyback

Q: In your view, is that harder to buy back its own stocks than its own bond? Which way is more effective? Definitely, stocks (my personal opinion). So why does DB buy back bond instead?

 

 

US European Regulator Reach Deal on Derivatives

Q: Goldman Sachs once helped Greek to use swap to hide its borrowing. So reaching an agreement on derivatives is very important. Summarize the purpose of this agreement.

 

 

Italy’s tax crack down

Q: “Italian clients found themselves with basically nowhere to go”. What is your opinion on this remark. Is that impossible to evade tax in US as that said in Italy?

  The Importance of Diversification

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RoqAcdTFVFY

 

 

 Understanding Diversification in Stock Trading to Avoid Losses

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrmoXog9zig

 

 

 

How to Build a Portfolio | by Wall Street Survivor

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V48NECmT3Ns

 

Week7

Stock trading will be ended by 2/24.

 

Chapter 10 WACC

ppt

Chapter 10 Review

Discount rate to figure out the value of projects is called WACC (weighted average cost of capital)

WACC = weight of debt * cost of debt *(1-tax rate) + weight of equity *( cost of equity)

 

Cost of debt = rate(nper, coupon, price – flotation costs, 1000)

Cost of Equity = D1/(Po – Flotation Cost)  + g   ----  Sorry, should take out flotation costs

D1: Next period dividend; Po: Current stock price; g: dividend growth rate

 

Discussion:

Cheaper to raise capital from debt market. Why? Why not 100% financing via borrowing?

 

In Class Exercise:

IBM financed 10m via debt coupon 5%, 10 year, price is $950 and flotation is 7% of the price, tax 40%.

IBM financed 20m via equity. D1=$5. Po=50, g is 5%. Flotation cost =0. So WACC?

Wd=1/3. We=2/3.

Kd = rate(10, 5%*1000, 950-950*7%, 1000)*(1-40%)

Ke = 5/(50 – 0) + 5%

WACC = Wd*Kd +We*Ke =

 

 

HOMEWORK of Chapter 10

1. Firm AAA sold a noncallable bond now has 20 years to maturity.  9.25% annual coupon rate, paid semiannually, sells at a price = $1,075, par = $1,000.  Tax rate = 40%, calculate after tax cost of debt (5.08%)

2.   Firm AAA’s equity condition is as follows. D1 = $1.25; P0 = $27.50; g = 5.00%; and Flotation = 6.00% of price.  Calculate cost of equity (9.84%)

3. Firm AAA raised 10m from the capital market. In it, 3m is from the debt market and the rest from the equity market. Calculate WACC.

 

 

Chapter 11: Capital Budgeting

ppt

Case study questions (as home work)

Npv, irr, mirr, payback, template (my contribution, simple excel command)

 

image010.jpg

NPV Excel syntax

Syntax

  NPV(rate,value1,value2, ...)

  Rate     is the rate of discount over the length of one period.

  Value1, value2, ...     are 1 to 29 arguments representing the payments and income.

·         Value1, value2, ... must be equally spaced in time and occur at the end of each    period. NPV uses the order of value1, value2, ... to interpret the order of cash flows. Be sure to enter your payment and income values in the correct sequence.

 

 

 IRR Excel syntax

Syntax

   IRR(values, guess)

   Values  is an array or a reference to cells that contain numbers for which you want to calculate the internal rate of return.

  Guess     is a number that you guess is close to the result of IRR.

 

 

 

MIRR Excel syntax

Syntax

MIRR(values, finance_rate, reinvest_rate)

 

Values: required. An array of a reference to cells that contain numbers.

These numbers represent a series of payments (negative numbers) and income (positive values) occurring at regular period.

 

Finance­_rate: Required. The interest rate you pay on the money used in the cash flow.

 

Reinvest_rate: Required. The interest rate you receive on the cash flows as you reinvest them

 

 

Chapter 12: Cash flow estimation

ppt

case study questions (last case study required)

 

Last Six WSJ papers

 

The Worst Tax Form

Form 1099-B, in which brokers report a taxpayer’s investment income, can cause delays and revisions. Here's how to minimize the damage

Q: Why FORM 1099-B is the worst? Your opinion?

 

 

Inflation Is Now at the Fed’s Service

Services are pushing overall prices higher, but with no pickup in goods prices, some companies could be left in the lurch

Q: What is the goal of Fed with respect to inflation? Does it mean that Fed raise interest rate due to concerns of inflation?

 

 

Funds That Lose Less Can Be Winners Over Time

These four large-stock mutual funds are near the top of the charts in long-term performance

Q: As a mutual fund manager, shall you have a short term or long term goal?

 

 

Europe Looks Ever More Divided After Brussels Deal

Whatever its citizens decide, U.K.’s push to renegotiate membership shows trend toward weaker union

Q: Why UK and Germany do not get along on this subject?

 

 

Brexit’s Hidden Threats—To Europe

Most think of the consequences of a British exit from the EU in terms of the U.K. economy. But what about Europe?

Q: As said, what about Europe?

 

 

Bracing for ‘Brexit’: Traders Get Defensive on British Pound

As U.K. weighs leaving EU, cost soars for options that protect investors from a big move in the pound

Q: As an investor, what is your opinion about the impact of the so called BREXIT?

 

 

 Net Present Value NPV Explained with

NPV Example for NPV Calculation (Cartoon, video)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FsGpi_W9XI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Using Excel for Net Present Values, IRR's and MIRR's

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgVQvn51noc

Week8

Exit Exam, Final and Due of Cases, HWs, and WSJ  Qs

Study Guide

Final Exam Conceptual Section Study Guide
Multiple Choice:  Conceptual (1*30=30, total 34 questions)

 

1-17. Conceptual questions from bond chapter

  • What is callable bond? When will the bonds be likely to be called? Between a bond with a call provision and that without, which one is more valuable? 

·         What is bond rating? What is the association between bond rating and bond yield and price changes.

·         Association between bond rating and leverage.  

·         The association between bond price, yield, par value, coupon, maturity, etc.

·         Differences between long term bond and short term bond, and the differences when there is a sudden change in interest rate. Which one is more risky?

·         Definition of current yield.

18-30

·         What is flotation cost.

·         Concept of diversification

·         Risk, return and standard deviation

·         What is beta? What is CAPM? What is Security market line? What is association between beta and stock return.

·         How to pick stocks? (Hint: based on beta, not standard deviation for portfolio)

 

Final Calculation Sections (Open Book)

Multiple Choice Questions (2.5* 16 = 40, short answer question 1: 3*5=15, short answer question 2: 5*3=15)

1.                  Calculate payback period

2.                  Calculate multi-irrs, given uneven cash flow

3.                  Calculate IRR, given cash flow

4.                  Calculate crossover rate, given cash flows of two projects

5.                  Calculate MIRR

6.                  Given MACRS table, calculate depreciation of a certain year.

7.                  Given probability and return table (Chapter 8 case) calculate expected return, using sumproduct

8.                  Given a series of returns, calculate the standard deviation using stdevp (Chapter 8 case)

9.                  Given probability and return table (Chapter 8 case) calculate standard deviation (Tedious but doable, refer to case of chapter 8)

10.              Stock price calculation using Po=D1/(r-g)

11-16: Bond calculations: Price calculation, yield to maturity, current yield calculation. 

 

 Short answer questions (3 questions * 5 = 15 points)

Similar to case study of chapter 12, calculate the followings.

1.      What is the initial cost of this project?

2. What is the operating cash flows from year 1 to year 4

3. What is the operating cash flows in year 5 (last year)

 

Short Answers (total 15 points)

1.                  Find after tax cost of debt

2.                  Find cost of equity 

3.                  What is weight of debt?

4.                  What is weight of equity?

5.                  What is WACC?