You will track one global market during the semester and explain why it moved using FIN415 tools (FX, rates, parity, risk, policy, geopolitics, and hedging/futures). This is not a "predict the price" contest - it is a structured market explanation + scenarios.

Time Window

Jan 1, 2026 -> Apr 15, 2026

Your charts and event log must cover this full window.

Choose ONE Topic

Silver market (recommended): spot + CME silver futures + USD + rates + inflation + geopolitics
One country's currency: e.g., JPY/EUR/CNY/MXN (FX + central bank + macro + risk events)
The U.S. dollar: DXY/broad USD + rates + global risk + commodity links

Due Date

Apr 15, 2026

Final report + appendix submitted on this date.

Required Components (what your project must include)

Weekly Market Log (required)
One entry per week from Jan -> Apr 15 documenting what moved + why.
Data & Charts (minimum set)
- Main chart: your chosen asset (silver / currency / USD) for Jan 1-Apr 15, 2026
- At least 2 supporting charts (pick any two+):
  - USD index or relevant FX pair
  - Treasury yields and/or real rates
  - Inflation / inflation expectations
  - Risk sentiment proxy (risk-on vs risk-off logic)
  - Related commodity (gold for silver; oil for some currencies; etc.)
  - CME futures curve / volume / open interest (if available)
FIN415 Concept Toolkit (must explicitly use at least 6)
You must clearly apply at least six concepts below (not just mention them).
- FX quotes, bid/ask spreads, cross rates
- Balance of payments / flow logic
- PPP (inflation differentials; real vs nominal FX)
- IRP (covered/uncovered; forwards)
- Fisher / inflation expectations
- Exchange-rate regime implications (if currency topic)
- Hedging tools: forwards / futures / options (CME encouraged)
- Country risk + geopolitical risk channels
- Commodity-FX linkages (especially for silver)
CME / Futures Angle
- If topic = Silver: discuss spot vs futures, contango vs backwardation, and what futures measures can signal.
- If topic = FX/USD: you may use CME FX futures or forward-rate logic instead.
Scenarios (2-3) through Apr 15
Base / upside / downside scenarios tied to drivers; include what to watch next to identify which scenario is unfolding.

Deliverables

Weekly updates (Jan -> Apr 15)
Short weekly entry (bullets OK): what moved, top catalysts, mechanism, what matters next.
Final report (due Apr 15)
6-8 pages + appendix (charts, event log, data table/links). PDF or Word.
Appendix
Your data table + links + any calculations (Excel/Google Sheet OK).

Download Template (XLSX) Weekly Entry Template (below)

Grading Rubric

Category	Weight	What earns full credit
Weekly market log	20%	Consistent entries; specific moves + causes + mechanisms
Data & charts	20%	Clean visuals; correct window; meaningful supporting variables
FIN415 concept integration	25%	Correct use of PPP/IRP/rates/FX/hedging (not buzzwords)
CME/futures or forward logic	15%	Spot vs futures (or forwards); curve/logic tied to your story
Scenarios + monitoring plan	10%	Plausible driver-based scenarios; clear what-to-watch signals
Writing & organization	10%	Readable, structured, sources cited

Weekly Entry Template (copy/paste)

Use this format each week (bullets OK). Keep it short and specific.

Week of: ____________

1) What moved?
- Asset: ____________   Level: ______ -> ______   Change: ______ (%)

2) Top catalyst(s) (1-2):
- (1) ______________________________
- (2) ______________________________

3) Mechanism (FIN415 logic):
- Explain the channel (rates, USD, parity, inflation, risk-on/off, policy, geopolitics, flows).
- If applicable: link to PPP/IRP/forwards/futures.

4) Supporting evidence (links/data):
- Data release / central bank statement / news link: __________________
- Chart(s) updated: __________________

5) What matters next week:
- Key event/data to watch: __________________
- What outcome would confirm your story? __________________