FIN415 • Course Hub Spring 2026

Central hub for FIN415 (International Finance / Global Markets). Reference site from prior class: https://www.jufinance.com/fin415_25s/

Theme:

Quick Syllabus Snapshot

Key “need-to-know” items for FIN415 (Spring 2026).

Meeting, instructor, office hours

Meeting

Room: SIJU137

Days/Time: TR 2:00–3:15 PM

Instructor

Maggie Foley • Associate Professor of Finance

Email: mfoley3@ju.edu

Phone: 904-256-7772

Office: DCOBT 118A

Office Hours: T/TR 3:30–5:00 PM

Course Links

Course Home (26S)

Syllabus (PDF)

MarketWatch Game (FIN415-26S)

Password: havefun

Bookmark these links.

Grading (weights) + quiz attendance

Component	Weight	Notes
Exams (2 midterms + final)	70%	Closed book / closed note
Homework	10%	Problems similar to HW may appear on exams
Term Project (ONE)	10%	Inside main hub below; choose original market report or Iran war global impact report
Quizzes	10%	Short quiz at end of each class; also used as attendance check

Missing a quiz may negatively impact your grade. Communicate early if you anticipate an absence.

Grade calculator

FIN415 Grade Calculator

Enter raw scores. Midterm 1, Midterm 2, Final, and Term Project are out of 100. Homework and Quizzes are out of 10.

Midterm 123.33%

/100

Example: 84 means 84 out of 100.

Midterm 223.33%

/100

Example: 91 means 91 out of 100.

Final Exam23.33%

/100

Example: 88 means 88 out of 100.

Homework10%

/10

Example: 9.2 means 9.2 out of 10.

Term Project10%

/100

Example: 94 means 94 out of 100.

Quizzes10%

/10

Example: 9.4 means 9.4 out of 10.

Overall Grade

0.00%

Letter Grade

Completed Weight

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Blank boxes are treated as 0 in the full course grade. Exams are weighted equally within the 70% exam category.

Key dates

First Midterm Exam: Thu, 2/24
Second Midterm Exam: Thu, 4/2
Final Exam: Thu, 4/30 (3:00–5:30 PM)

Required text

International Financial Management — Jeff Madura (14th ed.)

ISBN: 978-0357130544 • Purchase options via JU bookstore course finder.

Term Project (ONE project) Due Apr 28, 2026 Click to collapse

Write one final report. This is not a weekly tracking project. Choose one of the two options below. Final report length: 800-1,000 words. Teamwork is allowed.

Option 1 — Original global market report

Choose silver, one country's currency, or the U.S. dollar.

Connect your topic to FX, rates, parity, inflation, geopolitics, commodities, and hedging.
Use charts and market explanation to show what happened and why.
You may discuss CME futures, forwards, or options where relevant.

🔥 Option 2 — Iran war impact globally

Focus on the global impact of the Iran war.

Focus on FX markets, commodity prices, inflation in the U.S. and globally, and stock markets.
Explain one hedging tool learned in class, such as futures or options.
Include your own forecast of the war and its market implications.

Due Date

Apr 28, 2026

Submit one final report. No separate term-project page is needed.

Exams & Solutions

First Midterm Exam 2/24

In class • Closed book / closed notes
50 T/F covering Modules 1–7
Study guide .

Study Guide Solution

Second Midterm Exam 4/2

In class • Closed book / closed notes
62 T/F covering Modules 8–12
Study guide is posted.

🚀 Study Guide EXAM 2➜ Solution

Final Exam 4/30 • 3:00–5:30

Comprehensive (closed book/notes). Study guide posted before the exam; solutions posted after.

Study Guidec (cominng soon) Solution (cominng soon)

Trading Game Tools (FINVIZ + MarketWatch)

Use these for the class MarketWatch game. Open an app, pick candidates in Finviz, then size the trade properly.

Featured Video

MarketWatch game walkthrough

Short-Only Scanner (App)

Daily shorts with presets, risk tool, checklist.

Open Short App

Long-Only Position Builder (App)

Fundamentals + technical entries, sector mix planner.

Open Long App

MarketWatch Game Website

Create/join your class game (Virtual Stock Exchange).

Open MarketWatch Games

FINVIZ Screener

Run scans, then use the apps above for sizing & diversification.

Open FINVIZ

How to Win the MarketWatch Game

Risk 1% per trade (use the app calculator). Journal each trade.
Diversify (cap about 25% per sector). Avoid crowding one theme.
Entries: Long buy dips in uptrends; Short fade weak bounces.
News check: Don’t short fresh strong catalysts; ride positive drift on longs.
Protect winners: Take partials; trail stops near support/resistance.

Class Game Room (FIN415)

Join FIN415-26S Game

Password: havefun

Part I — Trade & Globalization

Silver (XAG) 1/15

Timeline + key drivers (rates, USD, inflation, geopolitics) with a long-run price chart.

Silver Game Silver Info

Silver Price Forecast Game — Student IDs Only (click to expand)

Target date: 4/15/26. Guess the silver spot price ($/oz) on that date. Closest guess earns +5 extra points. Posted as Student ID only (no names). If there is a tie, all tied students receive the extra points.

Student ID	Guess ($/oz)
01	273
02	100
03	115
04	190
05	146
06	227
07	103

Winner is the closest submission to the posted 4/15/26 spot price.

JPY/USD (FX) 1/15

Timeline + carry trade, BoJ policy, U.S. yields, and why flows shift (buy vs sell U.S. Treasuries).

Open JPY/USD Page

Module 1 Multilateral vs Bilateral Trade 1/20

Definitions, trade-offs, examples, and homework prompt.

Open module1.html

Class notes (brief)

“What does IO mean?” IO = international organization (treaty-based groups like WTO/IMF/World Bank) that set rules, coordinate policy, and provide tools (dispute settlement, lending, standards).
Stay vs exit IOs (quick takeaway): Staying trades some autonomy for rule influence + predictability; exiting trades influence for faster unilateral flexibility (often with higher uncertainty/retaliation risk).
Exam tip: Separate scope (2 vs 3+ countries) from depth (how many rules).

Module 2 Trade Policy & Tariffs 1/22

2025 tariff outcomes → what firms learned → 2026 focus on capital flows, FX pressure, and “capital war” risk.

Open module2.html

Class notes (brief)

What tariffs do mechanically: a tariff is a tax wedge on imports. In the short run, it usually shows up as higher prices, fewer choices, and supply disruption risk. In the long run, firms may rebuild supply chains (Mexico/Vietnam/India), automate, or onshore “critical” parts.
Key concept: Incidence (who pays) depends on elasticities. If substitutes are scarce, consumers pay more; if foreign producers have little pricing power, exporters eat it.
2026 shift (new language): beyond trade in goods, watch capital competition — reserve diversification, settlement experimentation, yield differentials, and FX policy responses. This is why Ray Dalio calls it “capital war” (money + power), not just trade conflict.
Career translation: this shows up in business as margin pressure, FX exposure, cost of capital, risk management, and scenario planning — the exact skills used in finance, consulting, logistics, and corporate planning.
What to watch (10 indicators): inflation (CPI/PCE), 10Y Treasury, USD strength (DXY concept), credit spreads, payrolls/unemployment, wage growth (AHE/ECI), oil (WTI/Brent), PMI (ISM), trade flows, and “funding stress” signals.
Mini assignment reminder: write ~300 words: current conditions + how you stay adaptable (skill + financial habit + career move).

Video: Ray Dalio on “capital war” fears (monetary order stress).
Open Video

Module 3 International Trade: BoP & Monetary System (1/27)

Balance of Payments basics + how trade/finance connects to monetary regimes.

Open module3.html

Class notes (brief)

Balance of Payments (BoP) = the country’s accounting: the “ledger” of transactions with the rest of the world.
Two core buckets: Current account (trade in goods/services + income + transfers) and Financial account (capital flows: bonds, stocks, FDI, bank flows).
Identity you must know: CA + FA + errors/omissions ≈ 0. If you run a current-account deficit, you must finance it with net capital inflows (or reserve drawdown).
Trade deficit is not “free money”: it means you’re importing real resources now and paying via claims on domestic assets (capital inflows) or reserve changes.
Exchange rate link: FX affects competitiveness and import costs; expectations about rates can also drive capital flows that move FX even faster than trade does.
Policy angle: when FX is fixed/managed, the central bank’s reserve position and credibility become central; under floats, FX can adjust but volatility rises.
Exam tip: when you see “deficit,” ask which account? and then state the offsetting flow (financial inflow, reserve change, or valuation effects).

Mini-check: If a country runs a large CA deficit and foreign investors stop buying its bonds, what pressures show up first: FX depreciation, reserve loss, or higher interest rates? (Answer depends on the FX regime.)

Module 4 Gold Standard → Bretton Woods → Reserve Currency → Crypto (1/29)

System shifts: anchors, constraints, and what “reserve currency” really requires.

Open module4.html

Class notes (brief)

Core theme: every system is about an anchor (gold, USD-to-gold, inflation credibility) and the constraints it imposes.
Gold standard tradeoff: strong credibility narrative, but weaker crisis response. Adjustment often happens via internal deflation rather than FX moves.
Bretton Woods mechanics: USD linked to gold (official channel), others pegged to USD, and capital controls helped preserve domestic policy space.
Why Bretton Woods broke: global demand for dollars grew faster than U.S. gold backing (confidence strain) + rising effective capital mobility (pressure on pegs).
Trilemma (impossible trinity): you can’t fully have all three: fixed FX, free capital mobility, independent monetary policy. Pick two.
Reserve currency conditions: (i) credible policy/institutions, (ii) security/geopolitical backing, (iii) deep safe-asset markets, plus (iv) convertibility and (v) network effects/payment rails.
Crypto vs stablecoins: crypto is mainly an asset with volatility; stablecoins are usually a USD-linked payment rail and can affect banks through deposit migration/run-style dynamics.
Exam tip: if asked “is this a competitor to USD?”, separate unit of account vs payment rail vs store of value.

One-sentence anchor: “Stablecoins are often less a new reserve currency and more a distribution channel for USD use—unless backing and settlement migrate away from USD assets.”

Part II — FX Markets & Parity

Module 5 International Financial Markets 2/3

Market structure, participants, and how information flows through FX markets.

Open module5.html

Class notes (brief)

What “international financial markets” means: the network that prices and moves money across borders — FX, short-term funding, bonds, equities, and derivatives.
Key FX idea: FX is mostly OTC (dealer + electronic platforms). Liquidity is highest when London–NY hours overlap. Prices move fast because capital flows react faster than trade flows.
Main players (remember these 5): banks/dealers, central banks, corporations (hedgers), asset managers/pensions, and fast-money/HFT.
Plumbing words you must know: clearing/settlement (who delivers what), CCPs (reduce counterparty risk), and repo/funding (how the system gets leverage + liquidity).
Why hubs exist: clustering lowers costs via information + liquidity + contracting (more counterparties, tighter spreads, better price discovery).
Exam tip: when asked “why did FX move?”, separate: rate expectations (yields), risk-on/off (global risk appetite), and policy credibility (central bank/regulation).

Mini-check: If U.S. rates jump unexpectedly, which usually reacts first: FX (USD) or trade flows? Why?

Module 6 Forex Quotes: Base vs Quote Currency 2/5

Direct/indirect quotes, cross rates, and conversion practice.

Open module6.html

Class notes (brief)

Base vs quote currency: in USD/JPY, USD is the base and JPY is the quote. The number tells you how many JPY for 1 USD.
Direct vs indirect quote (U.S. perspective): direct = foreign per $1 (e.g., JPY per USD). indirect = $ per 1 foreign (e.g., USD per JPY).
Quick rule: if the quote is “foreign per USD,” and USD strengthens, the number usually goes up (you get more foreign currency per $1).
Cross rate idea: if you know A/B and B/C, then A/C = (A/B) × (B/C). Units must cancel correctly.
Invert safely: if you have USD/EUR but need EUR/USD, take the reciprocal: EUR/USD = 1 ÷ (USD/EUR).
Exam tip: always write units on every line (like dimensional analysis). If units cancel to what you need, your math setup is correct.

Mini-check: If 1 USD = 150 JPY and 1 GBP = 1.25 USD, then 1 GBP = 187.5 JPY. (Multiply because JPY/USD × USD/GBP → JPY/GBP.)

Module 7 Exchange Rate Determination 2/10

What determines a currency’s value? Demand–Supply logic, interest-rate drivers, risk shocks, and policy regime constraints.

Open module7.html

Class notes (brief)

Core model: FX price is set by demand (foreigners buying the currency/assets) and supply (residents selling the currency to buy foreign goods/assets).
Appreciation vs depreciation: D ↑ and/or S ↓ → currency appreciates. D ↓ and/or S ↑ → currency depreciates.
Top drivers (memorize): interest-rate differentials (expected real returns), inflation/credibility, growth expectations, risk-off/safe-haven flows, trade balance/current account, and intervention/capital controls.
What determines interest rates? Central bank policy (Fed), inflation expectations, growth outlook, risk premia/term premium, and fiscal/debt risk (bond supply + confidence).
Exam answer template: name the shock → say D or S shifts (which direction) → conclude appreciation/depreciation + one-sentence mechanism.
Regime constraint: connect to the impossible trinity: fixed FX + open capital markets forces monetary policy to follow the anchor.

Mini-check: “New Fed chair signals higher rates” → does USD demand shift right or left? What happens to the USD?

Module 8 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) 2/26

Law of One Price, absolute vs relative PPP, Big Mac idea, and why short-run FX can deviate from fair value.

Open module8.html

Class notes (brief)

Core idea: PPP says exchange rates should reflect relative price levels across countries in the long run.
Law of One Price: if the same good is freely traded with no barriers or transport cost, it should sell for the same price in different countries once prices are converted into a common currency.
Absolute PPP: the overall price level in one country should equal the other country’s price level after exchange-rate conversion.
Relative PPP: the change in the exchange rate should roughly match the inflation difference between two countries.
Why PPP may fail in the short run: transport costs, tariffs, nontraded goods, different consumption baskets, pricing power, and capital flows can all keep FX away from PPP for long periods.
Big Mac Index idea: it is a simple and memorable way to illustrate PPP by comparing the price of a similar product across countries.
Exam tip: PPP is usually better for thinking about long-run fair value than for predicting short-run exchange-rate moves.

Mini-check: If inflation is higher in the U.S. than in Japan, then under relative PPP the USD should tend to depreciate against the JPY over time.

Module Iran_War Iran War: Oil, Inflation, FX, and Market Risk 3/3

Conflict shock transmission: oil prices, inflation pressure, safe-haven demand, shipping risk, and implications for currencies and rates.

Not included in the 2nd midterm exam. However, this module does include homework and a quiz.

Open module_iran_war.html

Class notes (brief)

Oil channel: war risk in the Middle East can raise oil and shipping costs, which can push up inflation and squeeze firms’ margins.
FX channel: uncertainty can increase demand for safe-haven assets and shift capital toward USD and Treasuries.
Rate channel: if oil-led inflation rises, central banks may have less room to cut rates quickly.
Market channel: equities may face higher volatility, while gold and some energy-related assets may benefit from risk-off flows.
Exam note: this topic is not on Midterm 2, but students are still responsible for the quiz and homework.

Part III — Derivatives & Risk Management

This section focuses on forwards, futures, carry trades, parity conditions, and risk management in currency markets.

Module 9 Forward Contracts & Futures 3/5 & 3/10

Forward vs futures markets, margin, long vs short positions, settlement, and practical hedging/speculation examples.

Open Module 9

Class notes (brief)

Forward contracts: customized OTC agreements, usually used to lock in an exchange rate for a known future transaction.
Futures contracts: standardized exchange-traded contracts with margin and daily mark-to-market.
Key difference: forwards are flexible and customized; futures are liquid and regulated but less flexible.
Long vs short: long gains when price rises; short gains when price falls.
Margin: futures require initial margin and maintenance margin, so losses can trigger margin calls before maturity.
Use cases: hedging known FX exposure, commodity exposure, or speculating on market direction.

Module 10 Currency Carry Trade 3/12

How carry trades work, why they appear profitable in calm markets, and why they can unwind violently in stressed markets.

Open Module 10

Class notes (brief)

Basic idea: borrow in a low-interest-rate currency and invest in a higher-interest-rate currency or asset.
Goal: earn the interest-rate spread as long as the funding currency does not strengthen too much.
Common funding currencies: JPY and CHF when their interest rates are very low.
Why it looks attractive: in calm markets, exchange rates may move slowly, so the carry looks like “easy yield.”
Main risk: if the funding currency suddenly appreciates, FX losses can wipe out the interest gain very quickly.
Unwind risk: when volatility rises, many investors try to exit at the same time, which can push the funding currency up even more.
Link to UIP: UIP says high-interest-rate currencies should be expected to depreciate, but in practice that often does not happen smoothly in the short run.
Big lesson: carry trades often look safe until markets turn risk-off and crowded positions are forced to unwind.

Mini-check: If investors borrow in yen and invest in U.S. assets, what happens to the trade if the yen suddenly strengthens against the dollar?

Module 11 IRP, CIRP, and UIP 3/24

Interest rate parity, covered vs uncovered parity, forward-rate logic, and arbitrage intuition.

Open Module 11

Class notes (brief)

IRP: links spot rates, forward rates, and interest differentials across countries.
CIRP: covered interest parity uses a forward contract, so exchange-rate risk is hedged.
UIP: uncovered interest parity does not hedge exchange-rate risk and often fails in practice.
Core formula logic: the forward premium or discount should reflect the interest-rate gap.
Arbitrage idea: if CIRP does not hold, traders can potentially lock in riskless profit.
Connection to carry trade: carry trades exist partly because UIP often does not hold in the short run.

Module 12 Locational and Triangular Arbitrage 3/26

Bid–ask quotes, dealer comparisons, locational arbitrage, and triangular arbitrage practice.

No class notes. Focus on the module page examples, graphs, calculator, and in-class exercises.

Open module12.html

Module 13 Currency Derivatives - Options 4/7 & 4/9

FX options, payoff logic, speculation, and hedging of transaction risk.

Open module13.html

Class notes (brief)

FX option: a contract giving the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to exchange currency at a preset strike price.
Call option: right to buy the foreign currency. Useful when you expect that currency to become more expensive.
Put option: right to sell the foreign currency. Useful when you expect that currency to become cheaper.
Buyer vs seller: the buyer pays the premium and has limited downside; the seller receives the premium and takes the opposite side of the risk.
Do not mix up payoff and profit: profit must include the premium.
Long call: payoff = max(S_T − X, 0); profit = max(S_T − X, 0) − premium.
Long put: payoff = max(X − S_T, 0); profit = max(X − S_T, 0) − premium.
Break-even: long call breaks even at X + premium; long put breaks even at X − premium.
Importer hedge: if a U.S. firm must pay foreign currency later, a call option can hedge against that currency appreciating.
Exporter hedge: if a U.S. firm will receive foreign currency later, a put option can hedge against that currency depreciating.
Why use options instead of forwards? Options protect against bad moves while still allowing benefit from favorable moves, but they require a premium.
Main trap: keep straight whether you are the buyer or seller, whether the option is call or put, and whether the answer asks for per-unit or total contract profit.

Mini-check: A U.S. student must pay tuition in a foreign currency in August and is worried that currency may appreciate. Which option type would best hedge that risk, and why?

Module 14 Managing Transaction Exposure 4/14

Transaction exposure, payable vs receivable risk, and how firms choose among forwards, money market hedges, and options.

Open module14.html

Class notes (brief)

Transaction exposure: the risk that an agreed foreign-currency payment or receipt will change in domestic-currency value before settlement.
Payable vs receivable: if a U.S. firm must pay foreign currency later, it is hurt if that foreign currency appreciates. If a U.S. firm will receive foreign currency later, it is hurt if that foreign currency depreciates.
Main goal of hedging: reduce uncertainty in future cash flows, even if the hedge may remove some upside from favorable exchange-rate moves.
Forward hedge: lock in today’s forward rate for a future payable or receivable. Simple and direct when the amount and date are known.
Money market hedge: use borrowing and lending to create a synthetic forward. This works by discounting the foreign-currency amount today and converting at the spot rate.
Option hedge: useful when the firm wants protection against an unfavorable move but still wants to benefit if exchange rates move favorably. The tradeoff is the premium cost.
Importer logic: a firm with a foreign-currency payable often compares forward, money market hedge, and sometimes a call option.
Exporter logic: a firm with a foreign-currency receivable often compares forward, money market hedge, and sometimes a put option.
Key comparison: do not just say which hedge is “best.” Compare the dollar cost or dollar proceeds under each method and then explain the tradeoff between certainty and flexibility.
Exam trap: always keep straight whether the firm is an importer or exporter, whether the exposure is a payable or receivable, and whether the answer asks for the lowest cost or the highest proceeds.

Mini-check: If a U.S. firm must pay €500,000 in 90 days and fears the euro may rise, which hedge choices should it compare first, and why?

Module 15 Long-Term Debt Financing: Swaps 4/16 & 4/21

Currency swaps, interest rate swaps, comparative advantage, and how firms use swaps to manage long-term financing risk.

Open module15.html

Class notes (brief)

Swap: a long-term agreement between two parties to exchange cash-flow obligations based on predetermined rules.
Why firms use swaps: to lower financing cost, match the currency of revenues or expenses, or change interest-rate exposure without replacing existing debt.
Interest rate swap: often involves exchanging fixed-rate payments for floating-rate payments, or the reverse.
Currency swap: involves exchanging cash flows in different currencies, often including both interest payments and principal amounts.
Main intuition: two firms may each have a borrowing advantage in different markets, so a swap can let both firms end up with better effective financing terms.
Comparative advantage idea: one firm may borrow more cheaply at fixed rates, while another may borrow more cheaply at floating rates, creating room for a mutually beneficial swap.
Currency-matching motive: a firm with future cash inflows in euros, pounds, or yen may want debt payments in that same currency to reduce long-run exposure.
Swap dealer / intermediary: in practice, a financial institution often helps arrange the swap and may earn a spread.
Benefit: swaps can improve flexibility and reduce mismatch risk in long-term financing.
Risk reminder: swaps do not eliminate all risk. There can still be counterparty risk, credit risk, and market-value changes over time.
Exam trap: do not confuse a swap with a short-term hedge like a forward contract. Swaps are usually used for longer-term financing structure, not just one single transaction date.

Mini-check: If a U.S. firm has long-term euro inflows but most of its debt payments are in U.S. dollars, why might a currency swap be useful?